Miklós Kásler - Zoltán Szentirmay (szerk.): Identifying the Árpád Dynasty Skeletons Interred in the Matthias Church. Applying data from historical, archaeological, anthropological, radiological, morphological, radiocarbon dating and genetic research (Budapest, 2021)

CHAPTER NINE – Statistical and genetic investigations for the purpose of personal identification

Y-STR haplotypes and genealogical relationships

Determination of the genetic (relational) distance between two individuals is based on Y-STR marker sets and is possible by determining the genetic (allele) distance and with the help of the mathematical formula “Calculate Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor” (TMRCA):

http://www.nevgen.org/NevGen_TMRCA_Calculator.html

https://genealogy.stackexchange.com/questions/9186/geneticdistance-to-generations-calculation-for-y-str-dna-tests.

Every anthropologically identified male skeleton has an X/Y genotype, while anthropologically identified female skeletons have X/X genotype. The fetus was proven to be female. The Y-STR markers only show probable hereditary relationship based on allele matches (haplotypes). A total of 16 Y-STR markers were completely identical in the case of King Béla

III

and skeleton II/52_3 (Table 16); this marker number suggests a lineage relation. Every other skeleton showed at least four Y-STR marker differences: in other words, differing haplotypes from both skeleton 11/52 and Béla

III,

as well as from each other, rendering a relation to Béla

III

improbable (Table 17, Figure 40).

Probability of family relations

Number of Y-STR markers: 16

Y-STR match

16/16

15/16

14/16

13/16

12/16 11/16 10/16

Close relative

Relative

Probably relative

Probably not relative

Not relative

Figure 40. Probability of hereditary relations based on Y-marker matching, determined using the TMRCA mathematical formula.

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