Miklós Kásler - Zoltán Szentirmay (szerk.): Identifying the Árpád Dynasty Skeletons Interred in the Matthias Church. Applying data from historical, archaeological, anthropological, radiological, morphological, radiocarbon dating and genetic research (Budapest, 2021)

CHAPTER NINE – Statistical and genetic investigations for the purpose of personal identification

In the case of Y-chromosome STR markers, in a direct fatherson relation, there may be numerical changes in repeating sequences or point mutations, which can happen in the following cases: (a) longer repeating sequences, (b) repetitions of some base orders, (c) some chromosome regions, (d) a given markers higher mutational tendency. Kayser et

al.

(2000) found 11 Y-chromosome microsatellite tetranucleotide allele length changes in cases of fatherson relationships.

The Y-STR data allow us to determine hereditary relations based on paternal haplogroups (the sum of markers) (Walsh 2011); we can obtain these using the YHRD international database (https://yhrd

.

org) and the NEVGEN prediction software (http://www.nevgen.org

,

version 2016). Only skeleton II/54’s Y-STR pattern was in the YHRD database containing several hundred thousand entries. The prediction value of the haplogroups is shown through three parameters: fitness score, relative fitness score and prediction probability. The smaller the fitness score and relative fitness score are, the less reliable it becomes, due to the fact that the prediction softwares current version does not conform to a great enough degree to the given sample. Detailed data are presented in Table 17.

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