Külügyi Szemle - A Magyar Külügyi Intézet folyóirata - 2007 (6. évfolyam)
2007 / 2-3. szám - IRAK ÉS AMI UTÁNA JÖN - Magyarics Tamás: Iraki homokszem az Egyesült Államok politikai gépezetében
Résumé Tamás Magyarics: An Iraqi Spoke in America's Wheel It is obvious now that the American intervention in Iraq has not produced the results which the Bush Administration expected in 2003. Though it is premature to draw a balance sheet of the American occupation of Iraq, it seems that its beneficiaries and 'victims' are not the ones the planners in Washington had in mind when they made preparations for destroying Saddam Hussein's regime and building democracies in the (wider) Middle East. The unintended consequences of the war against Iraq and the subsequent occupation of the country include the improved geopolitical positions of Iran, the potential nuclear proliferation in the region, the undisturbed growth of the power of potential global rivals such as China and Russia in international politics. Moreover, the intervention in Iraq has posed serious challenge to the Bush-doctrine in general, and the promotion of democracy and the doctrine of pre-emptive action and unilateralism in particular. Washington seems to be edging toward back to a more Realpolitik approach to international affairs, in which stability is given priority. Besides the Bush-doctrine, the stature and prestige of the U.S. in the world have also been a victim of Iraq to some extent. In a broader context, it is exactly the world order the U.S. built after World War II that has been shattered. One way of correcting the course and a return to the successful post-war U.S. foreign policy may be applying again cooperation and persuasion instead of coercion and pressure. Paradoxically, while the Bush Administration was busy promoting democracy abroad, some pillars of the American democracy have come under attack; specifically, the so-called 'due process of law' was hurt with the unauthorized wire-tapping, detention, etc. practices. However, as the title of the essay suggests, Iraq is not likely to cause an irreperable damage to the U.S. either domestically or internationally; the proponents of 'declinism' do not take the fact into account that the core values in the U.S. still prevail and there is no credible threat to the global positions of the U.S. at the moment either. 2007. nyár-ősz 47
