Vízügyi Közlemények, 2002 (84. évfolyam)

1. füzet - Illés Lajos: A felső-tiszai árvíz előrejelzés fejlesztés koncepciója

A felső-tiszai án'iz előrejelzés f ejlesztési koncepciója 39 Az előrejelzési projekt szervezeti-jogi kereteit a Tisza-völgyi ötoldalú együttműködési fejlesztését célzó 2001. májusi Budapesti Nyilatkozat adhatja meg. Erre alapozva kialakíthatók a felső-tiszai három- vagy négyoldalú előrejelzés-fejlesztési projektek szakmai—szervezeti keretei. A szervezeti keretek megteremtését magyar részről célszerű minél előbb kezdeményezni. Ennek szakmai alapja lehet jelen fejlesztési koncepció. * * * Concept of the development of flood forecasting in the upper Tisza river by Lajos ILLES C.E. The main objective of the study is to analyse the present situation of flood warning, alarming and forecasting and of the hydrological information system in the Upper Tisza River (Figure /.), along with the options of medium term (2-4 years) development. The main development tasks are unambiguously marked by the specific flood-hydrology of the region (Figure 2., Table I.) and by the special character of water-damage prevention activities needed here (Figure 3.): — The lead-time of flood information should be increased and — The reliability of predicting water levels should be improved. Flood warning and forecasting of appropriate reliability and lead-time can only be secured by the harmonised development of all elements of the information system (Figure 4.). Thus the development of the following elements of the Upper Tisza flood forecasting system is needed: — The traditional and automatised stations of the flood-hydrological system; — The weather radars; — The utilisation of the services offered by the meteorological satellites; — The use of short and medium term flood forecasting models; — The flood-forecasting methods and models; — The organisation, which is responsible for the operation and further development of the forecasting system. — The international, national and local legal frames of the operation of the system. The development concept consists of the following essential items: In the traditional flood-hydrological monitoring system, the following tasks should be performed: — In Hungary: Maintenance and operation of the system of stations; — In Ukraine: Urgent and significant development of the present monitoring system (Figure 5.) is needed. 30-35 new rain, snow and air temperature gauging stations should be installed in that part of the catchment basin, which is higher than 500 m above sea level. Installation of new, daily reporting, water level gauging stations in the mountainous part of the river system. Installation of new radio-communication systems in the stations. Full reconstruction of the system of flow data registers along with the establishment of new stations. — In Romania: Substantial increase of the number of stations, which are included in the international data-exchange system. In respect to the automated stations of the monitoring system the followings are needed: — The independent systems of the countries involved should be based on the same information system principles; — In the first development stage of the station network those stations should be included,