Vízügyi Közlemények, 2002 (84. évfolyam)
1. füzet - Illés Lajos: A felső-tiszai árvíz előrejelzés fejlesztés koncepciója
42 Illés Lajos which can increase the lead time of the forecasting, or which help to calibrate against the radar-monitored precipitation data; — The Hungarian, Romanian and Ukrainian sub-systems should be connected by constructing direct data transfer channels; Within this, the following concrete development tasks refer to the countries involved: — In Hungary: Expansion of the existing (Figure 6.) telemetric network. Installation of further 3—5 hydrometeorological stations. — In Ukraine: Installation of 10-12 new hydrometric and 15 new hydrometeorological stations in the mountainous river reaches and catchment parts. They should be connected to the existing Centre and to the radio data transfer system (Figure 6.). — In Romania: Harmonisation of the automation development programme, which was launched in the framework of the PHARE programme in the Upper Tisza and in the River Túr, with the unified Hungarian-Ukrainian automised system (Figure 8). The development needed in the field of remote sensing is as follows: — The new version of the software, which receives and processes the data of the Meteosat system, should be purchased; — The meteorological products made by the National Meteorological Service (OMSZ) on the basis of the digital data of the satellites MSG and NOAA, should be obtained and made use of. — The remote sensing services of the satellites should be utilised (observation of the surface of the catchment area, estimation of snow-coverage and its water content, determination of inundated areas); — An image processing programme should be developed, which can jointly handle the digital data of satellite images and the weather-radar precipitation data. The development needed in the field of using weather radars is as follows: — The unified and harmonised regional radar-meteorological system, covering the enitre Upper Tisza Catchment, should be established (Nyíregyháza-Napkor, Nagyvárad/Oradea, Kolozsvár/Cluj, Nagybánya/Baia Mare-Gutin). — The replacement of the radar-system of Nyíregyháza-Napkor should be accelerated, along with the respective hydrological development work. — The radar network of Nagybánya/Baia Mare -Gutin should be established in the framework of a Hungarian-Romanian-Ukrainian co-operation and with international financial support. — The data of the Hungarian and foreign rain gauging stations should be utulised for the calibration of radar precipitation meters. The calibrated rain-field should be produced by OMSZ. The methodological development of flood forecasting should include: — Development of operative flood-hydrological evaluation programmes, based on the hydrological data base VIR-OHM; — Further updating of statistical flood-forecasting methods; — Methodological development of the flood warning and alarm system; — Continuation of the adoption of rainfall-runoff models, making use of existing experiences and the calibrated precipitation fields (of the radar system) and also of the forecasted quantitative rain-fields (Figure 10.). — Adoption of flood forecasting models, which take into account the effect of existing and planned reservoirs, to the catchments of the rivers Szamos, Túr and Kraszna. — Methodological development related to remote sensing (estimation of snow coverage, observation of the state of the catchment); — Development of calibration method for the radar precipitation-fields, preparation of composite precipitation fields.
