Vízügyi Közlemények, 2001 (83. évfolyam)
3. füzet - Nagy László: Természeti veszélyek és a kockázat
448 Nagy László Tóth S„ Nagy L.: Árvízi kockázati térképezés, Tanulmány a nemzetközi gyakorlat és a hazai eredmények alapján a hazai fejlesztési lehetőségekről, Kutatási jelentés, kézirat. 1994. Whitman, R.: Evaluating Calculated Risk in Geotechnical Engineering, Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 110, No. 2. 1984. Vaness, D. T.: Landslide hazard zonation, a review of principles and practice, UNESCO, 1984. Vick, S. G.: Risk analysis for seismic design of tailing dams. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, Vol. 111. 1985. * • * Dangers of nature and the related risks by László NAGY C.E. We are facing dangers in every minutes of our life and in every fields of our activities. The judging of the extent of these dangers depends mostly on subjective factors. Many of us undertake voluntarily the facing of higher dangers, for example as part of their recreational activities or for better material goods. Handling of the dangers of nature, which can be characterised by various physical parameters can be simplified and made comparable by calculating the risks. The exclusion of subjective approach became possible as the result of many years of research, made in many countries. In course of this analysis the specialists of various fields (engineers, geologists, meteorologists, etc.) calculate the probability of return of various sources of danger. Economic experts calculate the expectable damages corresponding to the occurrences of these dangers, in order to determine the risk. Decision makers, usually the parliament of the respective country, define the limit values of the acceptable risk. By calculating the risk the dangers become comparable and it can be decided, whether there is a need for making measures aimed at the reduction of these dangers, thus making the planning of counter measures possible. The consequences of natural dangers are, in many cases, by orders of magnitude smaller, than the dangers induced by man. The number of natural dangers are relatively constant even on the long term, while the consequences are steadily increasing even in the most developed countries. This tendency is not likely to change even in the 20 s t century, when new challenges will have to be faced due to the concentration of urban populations. There are several structural and non-structural means of reducing risk, and thus the risk of flood defence. Some of the non-structural means are the better information of the public, the rising of the danger-awareness of the society and the improving the danger-sensitivity. To do so, however, the dangers must be clearly defined and the specialists must be able to give the probabilities and consequences of natural catastrophes at least in their order of magnitude. * * * Naturgefahren und Risiko von Dipl.-Ing. László NAGY In allen Bereichen und in jedem Moment des Lebens lauern uns Gefahren. Ihre Beurteilung hängt größtenteils von subjektiven Faktoren ab.Viele Leute setzen sich freiwillig größeren Gefahren aus, z. B. während ihrer Freizeittätigkeit oder gar für eine bessere Dotierung. Die mit
