Külügyi Szemle - A Magyar Külügyi Intézet folyóirata - 2007 (6. évfolyam)
2007 / 2-3. szám - IRAK ÉS AMI UTÁNA JÖN - Romsics Gergely: A nemzetközi rendszer Irak után: régi hegemón, új hegemonikus rend
Romsics Gergely Gergely Romsics: The International System after Iraq: Old Hegemon, New Hegemonic Order Theorizing hegemony and empire has experienced a resurgence since 1990, a process obviously triggered and also conditioned by the unique position of the United States in the international system. This paper seeks to survey some aspects of IR literature on hegemony, taking insights pulled from this field as a starting point for an analysis of the debates concerning US decline as theorized from the 1970s onwards. The findings of this analysis suggest that binary thinking about rising or declining hegemons may be misleading, and a more nuanced and varied account of processes and trends within a hegemonic order may be required to make sense of events in the contemporary world. The paper proposes considering just one instrument to introduce a more flexible framework for an analysis of US hegemony - that of repair strategies employed by the hegemon in times of malfunctioning or suboptimal performance of the international system. It is this concept that is put to use in the concluding section of the paper, which asks the question what current and expected repair strategies may prove rational for the hegemon to adopt. This section does not seek to identify a preferred level of analysis, instead, systemic constraints and opportunities are put in the context of domestic win-sets to formulate conclusions concerning viable and unviable repair strategies and the repercussions these are likely to have in the rest of the world. The general thrust of this final section is towards building arguments for a wounded beast-type behaviour as the most likely outcome, meaning strictly preferring non-commitment for long-term crisis management scenarios and opting for massive retaliations or preemption without long-term engagement in the case of threats, in part because of domestic win-sets and in part to achieve deterrence. Such behaviour does undermine the hegemonic system, however, as in the process the hegemon itself fails to make the required investments that would endow the system with the required guarantees for relative peace and payoffs to other states. 28 Külügyi Szemle
