Külügyi Szemle - A Teleki László Intézet Külpolitikai Tanulmányok Központja folyóirata - 2006 (5. évfolyam)
2006 / 1-2. szám - TÁVOL-KELET - Vámos Péter: Tajvan: önálló ország vagy szakadár tartomány
Résumé eignty, it is an independent country de facto, but the international community - under Chinese pressure - does not recognize it as such de jure. On the one hand, Beijing promotes economic integration and the presence of Taiwanese capital so that the growing economic and social links will facilitate unification in the long run while, on the other one, it floats the possibility of a military attack and does its best to isolate Taiwan politically. Its goal is to bring the island into a position of dependence from China and, at the same time, it endeavors to gain the political forces opposing President Chen Suj-pien for the cause of unification. The bulk of the population of Taiwan supports the maintenance of the current situation because the declaration of independence will endanger the democratic system and the material well-being. There is no such an adventurous force in Taiwan at the moment which would like to gain political advantages by increasing the tension to the utmost. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the Taiwanese politics aims at increasing the tension at times despite the fact that a Taiwanese provocation might entail Beijing's armed retaliation. The third participant of the conflict, the United States, as Taiwan's ally insists that the solution of the tension should be carried out with the agreement of the two parties peacefully, but she has also let it be known that she would prevent China from using force even by deploying her military forces. In case of an armed conflict, the American reaction would likely to be a strong military action, and it might result in an American- Chinese war. The possibility of this latter scenario is rather meager now. The lessening of the tension can be predicted in the bilateral relations given the current rate of the expansion of the relations between the two countries. However, China's growing influence might cause new tensions in the U.S.-Chinese relations - and the positions of both of the countries in the Taiwan-question are used as points of justification both in Washington and in Beijing. Globalization undermines the efficiancy of China's coercive policy to a certain extent and increses the price of a potential armed solution of the conflict. At the same time, the decision-makers in Beijing think that the ever-increasing economic interdependence between the two coasts of the strait facilitates the stability of the region and its international support, which may serve Beijing's interests in the long run. Taiwan: ein selbständiges Land oder eine separatistische Provinz? Dem Standpunkt der Volksrepublik China nach existiert ein einziges China, und Taiwan ist sein untrennbarer Bestandteil. Der Großteil der politischen Kräfte auf Taiwan jedoch hält das Herangehen an „ein China, ein Taiwan" von verschiedenen Nuancen aus für akzeptierbar. Für die Volksrepublik ist es eine Prestigefrage, dass der Prozess 86 Külügyi Szemle
