Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974 (54. évfolyam)

3-4. szám - Könyvismertetés

Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974. 3—4. sz. 145 predict with the desirable degree of reliability the future water demands. Long-term planning responsibilities in the water management sector maKe the improvement of planning methods essential and the introduction of new methods, by which the reliability and accuracy of water demand forecasts can be improved. The elaboration of basic criteria and functions is considered essential for further refining the method, in which there is wide , scope for the application of advanced mathematical procedures and computation techniques. In a paper devoted to the significance and methodological problems of regional planning Dr. L. Major started from the consideration that the basic objective of regional planning is to develop a detailed strategy and policy of regional development, within the scope and framework defined by the specific objectives of the national economy and by the conditions particular to the region. Consequently an important function in regional planning is to coordinate the regional development desires with the long-range development objectives of various branches of the national economy, these latter controlling the possibilities and trends of regional development. In this context the water management sector is classified as one, which assumes increasingly decisive importance in the realization of regional development plans. Referring to the infrastructural character of water management, it is pointed out that the long-range plan elaborated in the sector by regional units occupies an intermediate position between the national and the complex regional development plans. The author proceeds then to discuss the problem of regional units to be applied in planning, advocating a division compatible with the character of the special branch concerned. In the case of large water management projects, the regional plans are eminently suited for defining the objectives of development. A comprehensive picture is presented in the paper on the planning and methodological possibilities of defining regional development objectives and consideration is given also to the time period for which longrange regional development plans should be compiled. The potential applications of mathematical models in water management regional planning are outlined. The long-term water management development plan for the Tisza River Valley is described by I. Szabó, presenting a first practical example for the application of the planning and forecasting methods elaborated in connection with long-term regional planning. Special attention is devoted to the water demand forecast. The water demand forecast for the Tisza River Valley is founded on the detailed analysis of the socioeconomic standard in 1970, as well as on the expected evolution thereof. In this area the present and future pattern of settlements was studied in detail along with the changes in the number of population, the present state and foreseeable development of industry, as well as the growth of and structural changes in agricultural production. In this way it was possible to establish certain limits of the demand for water in this particular region up to the end of the century. Considering evolution at different rates and intensities the water demands in the coming 15 to 30 years were forecast with regard to the different water uses. The experiences gained in this work are reported, indicating the shortcomings of the information system and planning method applied, concluding that the most serious problems were related to the selection of the regional units and time period of planning, and were due mainly to the lack of a suitable information basis (which affected considerably the applicability of the forecasting methods as well). A new method of integrated technico-economic planning in the entire sphere of water management is presented in the paper by A. Barna and P. Salamin. The basic idea underlying the approach is that the impact of water management as a whole, of the various activities thereof, alone or in groups cannot be evaluated in their relations with natural-, socio-economic and technical factors, unless a uniform method of analysis is adopted. This may form the foundation of a sectorial model system serving the purposes of consistent planning. One of the essential features of the model system is a logical skeleton, by which the relations between water resources, water management activities and sectors of the national economy are expressed in terms of the quantitative processes of the waterhousehold, and in which the water volumes moving in the diverse processes are applied as basic parameters. As other essential features of the model system hydroeconomic parameters are introduced. One of these is the water utilization factor, representing the water volume needed to produce unit socio-economic change. This is used in the method described as one of the input factors for expressing the specific relations of water management processes and their direct connectios with socio-economic processes. The other parameter is the specific yield, which, as one of the outputs of the system indicates the result related to unit water volume involved in the process, and accruing from a particular water management activity performed under a given set of space and time conditions. Numerous details of the model are expounded in the paper, a theoretical example is presented and some potential applications, together with possible improvements are indicated. Of the hydroeconomic studies associated with longterm planning, the paper by Dr. K. Rajczi deals with the exploration and representation of the technicoeconomic relations applying to water management project systems. Systems theory is adopted as the fundamental approach to the problem. Several alternatives are offered for defining the degree of organization within the water management project system, depending on the complexity thereof. In exploring the technico-economic relations another important field is concerned with the magnitude of internal economic demands to be met by the water management project system and with the extent to which these demands are satisfied. The exploration and representation of the technicoeconomic relations in complex water management projects is possible also by a systems theory approach, but it is pointed out at the same time that exploration, representation by the cybernetical method alone is not feasible, and that the viewpoints of economics, hydrotechnics must also be included — among others — into the analysis, first of all to ensure the reality of the control system. The method suggested may provide answers in the case of actual long-range planning to the following questions: Is the conception of the system a logical one? Is the system a complete one? Is the system an economical one? and finally: Is the reliable operation of the system guaranteed? In long-range water management planning growing attention is being paid to the environmental aspects, which are considered from a novel angle in the paper by Dr. I. Szirota. Approached from the side of water management, environment conservation involves the problems related to the quality and pollution of waters, but also to the important domain of damage aversion. The outstanding role of environmental planning within the general system of long-term economic planning in the national economy is emphasized. The environmental considerations and interests must permeate the entire system of economic planning, the complex plan of the national economy, as well as the sectorial- and regional plans compiled on the basis thereof. Detailed attention is devoted to the significance of the regional water pollution control plan, which offers the possibility for approaching the pollution control problems in the area considered and the order of magnitude of the necessary measures from the aspect of socio-economic demands and expectations. Within the framwork of perspective planning the estimation of the future labour situation and the study of problems related thereto has assumed growing sig-