Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974 (54. évfolyam)

3-4. szám - Könyvismertetés

Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974. 3—4. sz. 144 to Hungary and Czechoslovakia, but at the same time sponsored by the World Health Organization. — M. Bosznay (I/A

—16), dealing with problems of common interest between Austria and Hungary in connection with the conservation and development of the Lake Fertő Region. Systems planning has been mentioned in its isolated elements only. This seems to imply that this promising powerful tool in perspective planning is yet in the evolution stage here and is not yet familiar enough to appear in a comprehensive paper. It should be noted however, that the new filing system in water management, which is in the process of introduction, is expected to yield valuable data and sets of data for systems planning as well. * * * In the large assembly hall of the Hungarian Academy of Science which was founded by Count István Széchényi, and which listed as its first water-engineer member Paul Vásárhelyi, I had the honour of reviewing the merits of the papers submitted to the present conference on the engineering aspects of perspective planning in water management. As clearly demonstrated by these papers the evolution in this field is a considerable one and again noteworthy progress has been made on the way pioneered by Széchenyi and Vásárhelyi and their many devoted successors towards a better future for their own and later generations. Perspective planning, economics By MRS. L. C S A N A D Y, Dr. Econ. NWA, Water Resources Center, Budapest Planning for the near, but especially for the more distant future has become a necessary, and at the same time increasingly complex task in dynamically evolving economies. The changes taking place at accelerating rates, the expansion of intricate interrelations and processes between society and economy imposes ever growing responsibilities on perspective planning and this, in turn, emphasises the necessity of developing both the practice and methodology of planning work on scientific foundations. The exploration, analysis of the interrelations between socio-economic processes and water management, further the forecasting of anticipated changes therein is possible by methods of economics. This is demonstrated also by the fact that hydroeconomics, the special branch of economic science dealing with the exploration of interrelations between society, economy and water management has evolved at vast strides all over the world during the recent decades. The development of water management in harmony with, and at a rate corresponding to, that of socioeconomic evolution is unimaginable, unless we know in advance all the social, or economic demands, which must be met within the water management sector. In Hungary water management has become an autonomous sector within the sectorial structure of the national economy, as the new system of economic control was introduced. Consequent from the infrastructural character of this sector, the socially necessary spheres of its activites are controlled by the development in virtually all other sectors of the national economy. It is for this reason that the perspective plan of water management encompasses all activities related to this sector, regardless of the sectorial organization, or authority of the agency performing it. Since one of the foundations of perspective water management planning is the determination of the social demands projected from the national economy towards this sector, it is considered absolutely necessary to introduce and practice generally the considerations and methods common to economics. For the more reliable justification of medium- and long-term water management development plans it was found therefore necessary that the planners adopt increasingly the knowledge and approaches offered by hydroeconomics. The diversity of the problems arising in connection with perspective planning, as well as the basic significance of hydroeconomics therein is clearly demonstrated by the papers submitted to the present conference. These papers deal with the methodological and practical problems of perspective planning in water management, which are currently encountered in actual planning work. A comprehensive picture on sectorial and regional planning in water management is presented in the paper submitted by Dr. F. Vavrik. Starting with an outline on the interrelations between the plan of the national economy and of the individual sectors, it is demonstrated that consequent from the infrastructural character of the water sector it is inevitable to strive at complexity and comprehensiveness in planning. Analysing the significance of long-term and perspective planning in water management it is concluded that the development objectives in this sector are incompatible with the time horizons commonly adopted in economic planning. For this reason it appears advisable to define the development objectives in water management for 25 to 30 years in advance. In the interest of perfecting long-term planning, the development of methodology is considered important, thus the evolution and application of a more comprehensive, more ambitious prognostic approach of futurology interpreted in the correct sense. Site selection for the sectorial objectives is one of the main functions of regional planning, which is assigned an outstanding role in water management planning. The present level in water management planning is analysed finally, together with the positive and negative features and factors. Attention is called to the fact that the socio-economic environment of water management development cannot be outlined, unless international relations are adopted as a starting point, with due regard to the rising standards in both social and economic life, likely to follow in the wake of general economic evolutipn in Europe and especially of international economic integration. The paper by Mrs. Dr. L. Csanády is concerned with the methodological problems of predicting the social expectations to be met by the water management sector, with special regard to demands, on which the perspective development plan of water supply is founded. Starting from the socio-economic evolution expected, carefully selected methods yield more or less reliable figures on water demands classified according to uses both on the level of the national economy and grouped by regions. The forecast extends to 15 to 30 years. The potential applications and reliability of any method are fundamentally influenced by the volume of information available. Incorrect, ambiguous, or unreliable information from various sectors of the national economy, including water management, may distort the picture, which it is necessary to form about the evolution in society, as well as in economy to