Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974 (54. évfolyam)

3-4. szám - Könyvismertetés

Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974. 3—4. sz. 141 SECTION I. Perspective planning, engineering aspects By ISTVÁN PAP, Civ. Engr. NWA, Water Resources Center, Budapest In presenting a general review of the 16 papers submitted on Subject I/A I have attempted to group the statements made therein around the main aspects given by Mr. J. Békési in his introductory paper. In his paper „The fundamental features of water management economics in Czechoslovakia" (I/A

—2), Dr. Juraj Michail (Czechoslovakia) defines an approach and establishes a link between the engineering and economic activites in perspective planning. The similar and dissimilar features of water management practices in Czechoslovakia and Hungary are pointed out. The industrial character of water supply is emphasized. This is in agreement with the recent development in Hungarian water management practice, which attitude has resulted in elevating water management to one of the sectors of the national economy. The process is outlined by which the water produced becomes a market commodity and assumes a market value to society. However, the interpretation given by the author to hydroeconomy is not quite clear. According to him the economics of water management become exclusively a branch of economic science in the same way as the economics of other sectors of the national economy. It would be interesting to hear a more detailed explanation of this approach, which differs radically from the viewpoint adopted in Hungary, according to which the boundary science of hydroeconomics is classified to the sphere of water management. Some remarks in two of the papers relate to longperspective planning, to a certain extent even to futurology. In his paper „Allowance for the effects of human interference in perspective water management plans" (I/a—

9), I. Balló deals in detail with the interrelations between Man and his environment, with special regard to the hydrosphere. Considering the hydrological cycle as a unit process, he does not believe in the possibility of making allowance in perspective planning to the secular variations thereof. The changes due to human intervention are classified into historical, statistical and prognostical sections. Hungary is stated to have advanced beyond the statistical section which has started by the introduction of regular observations and has entered the prognostical section analysing effects anticipated in the long future ahead. In this section it is already possible to estimate the influence of human activities. For the numerical estimation of such effects it may be useful to introduce a saturation limit related to the problem under consideration and specific indices (e.g. such related to one inhabitant), further to apply a logistic function. As a possibility for forecasting especially subsurface water resources and variations in river regimes, the observation of changes in sun-spot activity is suggested by Dr. I. Sárvári (I/a—

3). A statistical analysis of past records has revealed an interesting correlation between the relative number of sun-spots and the character of regime in some rivers, as well as the groundwater regime in some waterbearing layers affected by precipitation. The prediction of demands in the national economy is mentioned on the side only in the papers submitted on this subject, this belonging rather to the sphere of hydroeconomical justification, i.e., to subject I/B. Still, the problem is considered by Dr. Juraj Michail (I/a

— 2), Dr. G. Hankó (I/A—

7), I. Balló (I/A—

9), I. Árkai (I,/A—

10) and Dr. I. Oroszlány (I/A—

14). — Dr. G. Hankó in his paper „The importance of identifying the design typical period in perspective water management planning" (I/A

—7) discusses by synthetizing supplies and demands the selection of the period critical for water resources management, with reference to the actual problem in the Tisza Valley. In view of the demands it is concluded that instead of the critical August water balance presently adopted, the balance for July would be more relevant, as justified also by the irrigation development expected. This is supported also by the results of Dr. I. Oroszlány (I/A

—14). Another alternative would be the balance for September, warranted by the development in industrial water demands. — In his paper (I/A

—9) referred to already I. Balló emphasized that in estimating the future consequences of human interference, the perspective economic development is one of the elements most difficult to evaluate. Certain limits can be presumed with the help of the aforementioned saturation limits. — The increase in the demands of farming operations, particularly animal farms in the period 1970 to 1985, is considered in the paper by I. Árkai (I/A

—10). Large, concentrated livestock breeding farms are expected to greatly increase in number. — Professor Dr. I. Oroszlány (I/A

—14) has concluded from his investigations on the monthly variations in the water utilization factor to be detailed subsequently, that soil drainage in April will become increasingly necessary to avoid crop losses due to April rains. This presents a new problem in agricultural water management. At the same time, it is the agricultural demand in July that will be necessary to meet. A number of papers dealt with the prediction of long-range changes in natural conditions. — Dr. I. Sárvári (I/A

—3) has suggested that sequences of dry and wet years and thus the probable occurrence of periods with low and high groundwater stages can be predicted by analysing the periods of relative sun-spot activity. — L. Tirvol (I/A

—4) claimed as one of the purposes of the national observation network on artesian waters the exploration of water recharge and the determination of water mining rates. This is likely to permit long-range changes in artesian supplies to be predicted. — I. Fazekas (I/A

—5) presented a review of the conditions and methods of estimating and forecasting the changes in water quality due to wastewater discharges at given streamflow rates. In this way it would be possible to predict the expected trend in water quality as a function of the anticipated economic development in a particular catchment. — Dr. G. Hankó (I/A

—7) in dealing with the critical water balance period, considers the perspective changes in the supplies available in Hungary, due to water uses in the other countries sharing the Tisza Valley. The streamflow entering Hungary is likely to decrease in the growing season, especially in the months July to September. In a statistical analysis Dr. Hankó has divided the streamflow record on the Tisza River for 1921 to 1968 into one before 1942 and one thereafter and found that the discharges of 80 to 85% duration in July

—August in these latter years have decreased by 10 to 30% owing to more intensive irrigation farming and other water uses in the upstream parts of the catchment. The National Master Plan of Water Management has been approved by the Government. The next task is, as mentioned by J. Békési in his introductory lecture, to start long-range water management development planning for the country, first by periods, then by continuous improvement and refinement. An important step in this direction was the elaboration of the perspective technico-economic development program of