Vízügyi Közlemények, 1982 (64. évfolyam)

1. füzet - Bartha Péter és Szöllősi-Nagy András: A VÍZRAJZI ELŐREJELZÉS FEJLESZTÉSI PROGRAMJA ÉS EDDIGI EREDMÉNYEI

A vízrajzi előrejelzés fejlesztése 29 A summary of the forecasting models developed in Stage I is presented in Table III. The figures in parentheses refer to the reports on the research projects carried out under the program (Chapter 5). Parallel to the development of the numerical forecasting models, work has been continued in Stage I on the data collection coding systems HYDRA and PIYFOR corresponding to the WMO recommendations, and their use has become universally adopted for data communication. Plans and designs have been prepared for the computerized data collection-, processing and forecasting center of the National Hydrometrie Service (OVSZ), which is responsible for performing the central forecasting functions. The center can, however, be realized during the Vl-th five-year plan period only. This center would ensure the practical (operational) application of the forecasting methods developed and provide hydrological data, information and forecasts for the water agencies at a higher level as regards the volume and quality of the service alike. Interconnected with the computer and weather radar station of the Central Forecasting Institute, National Meteorological Service (OMSZ), the center would play also the role of an operative hydrological data bank. The objective of the second stage (1981 — 1983) is the introduction and practical use of the continuous (real-time) forecasting models. The gaging sections for which purely stochastic-, or structured-stochastic real-time models have thus far been developed are shown in Fig. 3. In connection with real-time forecasting the precipitation-runoff relation, severe difficulties arose in the numerical description of the processes believed to be familiar. This applies especially to small catchments. Methodological development should be concentrated in the near future on operative precipitation-runoff forecasting. It has become increasingly clear that a truly operational forecasting model (method) should combine the inherently physical information with the statistical evaluation of the unavoidable uncertainties. The model parameters can be updated by recursive algorithms. The third stage (1984 — 1985) has the objective of developing forecasting models on river water quality, of fitting the modules into the integrated system, as well as the practical application thereof. The peresent situation is characterized by the fact that the methods available are superior to the existing communication- and computation systems. It should be realized that the improvement of hydrological forecasting must not be confined to the perfection of the forecasting methods alone, but should be extended to the techniques of data collection, —communication, —processing, as well as of forecasting. This is believed to be the only way of achieving the desired goal, viz., improved information service to the various branches of water management. * * * Das Entwicklungsprogramm der hydrologischen Vorhersagen und die bisherigen Ergebnisse von Péter BARTH A und Dr. András SZÖLLŐSI-NAGY 1979 hat das Staatsamt für Wasserwesen beschlossen, ein Forschungsprogramm von hervorgehobener Bedeutung in Thema „Entwicklung der hydrologischen Vorhersagen" anzuregen. Hauptzweck des Programms ist eine Verkürzung des Zeitvorsprungs und eine Erhöhung der Zuverlässigkeit der operativen hydrologischen Vorhersage mittels Entwicklung eines einheitlichen Vorhersagesystems, wobei die Teilergebnisse der Arbeit sofort nutzbar gemacht werden sollen. Die Konzeption des Programms wurde, unter Mitwirkung der Wasserwirtschaftsdirektionen und sonstigen Forschungsinstitutionen, vom Hydrologischen Institut des Forschungszentrums für Wasserwirtschaft VITUKI ausgearbeitet. Grundprinzip des einheitlichen Vorhersagesystems ist die Modularität (Bild 1.). Die Funktion der einzelnen Module besteht jeweils in der Lösung von Teilaufgaben der ganzen hydrologischen Vorhersage.