Vízügyi Közlemények, 1981 (63. évfolyam)

2. füzet - Homokiné Újvári Katalin-Makainé Nagy Zsuzsanna-Takács Ágnes: Az 1980. évi tisza-völgyi árvíz időjárási feltételei

Az 1980. évi Tisza-völgyi árvíz 203 a) Prolonged convergence, caused by the occluded warm air masses. b) Development of discrete mezo-scale circulations above the critical catchment areas. c

) High atmospheric moisture. d) The effect of terrain contour increasing precipitation. At the Precipitation Synoptic Section of the Central Forecasting Institute (KEI), National Meteorological Service (OMSZ) 24-hour quantitative precipitation forecasts have been prepared since July, 1978. The area depth-averages of rainfall are predicted for ten catchments in the Danube Basin and eight catchments in the Tisza Valley. The model most generally used is termed the "coincidence modell" (Mrs. Bodolai, 1976/1). In Summer, 1980 the forecasts issued for the Tisza River Basin proved correct in 84% on the average and were thus highly sucessful. The accuracy of the forecasts is shown by months and sub-catchments in Fig. 20. The development of extremely heavy rainfalls is controlled by the mezo-scale synoptic processes. The formation, direction j»f travel thereof, further the intensity and depth of rainfall can be predicted in the Carpathian Basin for at the most 6 to 12 hours in advence. This, however, is possible only, if rainfall observations by weather radar and the regular analysis of satellite photographs can be made possible. The hourly and three-hourly observations by the Hungarian and foreign meteorological stations, respectively, are often insufficient to permit these mezo-systems to be detected. For this reason the urgent completion of the weather radar network in Hungary is considered necessary.