Századok – 1991
Tanulmányok - Palotás Emil: Ausztria–Magyarország és a háborús válság 1887/88-ban III–IV/229
266 PALOTÁS EMIL GP V Nr. 1109-1116. 154 A január 11-i közös minisztertanácson. RMRZ 350. HHStA PA XL K. 295. 155 Holsteins Geheimen Papiere 220, Briefwechsel 140. 156 A cím nélküli emlékirat a bécsi levéltár több helyén megtalálható, pl. PA X K. 86. Angolul közreadta Medlicott a Slavonic Review 1927. decemberi kötetében. AUSTRIA-HUNGARY AND THE WAR CRISIS 1887/1888 by Emil Palotás (Summary) The last and most critical phase of the great eastern crisis of the 1880*8 began in the summer of 1887 when Ferdinand Coburg was elected Prince of Bulgaria. (For the antecedents see Századok 121. 5.) From then on, the direct differences of the Great Powers stood in the forefront and the actual matters of the Balkans became second in importance. By that tiem, the conflict of the two most interested parties, i.e. Austria-Hungary and Russia became most inensive. "Barist Russia was guided by her impotent rage caused by her failure in Bulgaria. Even the probability of a military intervention was raised, but this not against Bulgaria, but against Austria considered responsible for the failure. The international positions of the Dual Monarchy had been significantly strengthened by the time of the Russian threat. It managed to win England for the defense of the status quo on the Balkans, i.e. to draw her into an active anti-Russian front. The support of germany also contributed to the success. The birth of this new consellection in politics made the warlike Russian leaders reconsider their views and the war crisis began to subside without ending in an overall European catastrophe. The article outlines the military conditions on both sides of the Austrian and Russian border and describes the preparations for war in the army of the Monarchy. The war crisis is, however, remarkable not promarily for its military aspects but as a political and strategic lesson for the future. The possibility of a European conflict was, namely, created not only by the irresponsibility of the Russians, but mainly by the peculiar interference of the Austrian and the German high commands and governments at the high of the cirsis. It was just this why the actual preventive motions against Russia started to be put to practice. Such a preventive attack could have resulted in a general war the given circumstances. The crisis was deepened not only by the inner conflicts of the Austro-Hungarian high command and the Ballplatz on the one hand the Prussian-German military leaders and leaders of the German foreign affairs on the ther other. The tactics of Bismarck was none the less responsible for the creation of the war-fever. He found it to be the best solution in Britain and Austria got involved in a war with Russia with Germany remaning neutral. This situation would create her opportunity to settle the bill with Frances industurbed. So Bismarck urged Vienna to take immediate military measures to prevent the threatening Russian attack. However, Vienna did not wish to provoke her northern neighbour and did not undertake a war against it without the participation of Germany. The Prussian high commens also thought two parallel wars impossible and wished to fight Russia at a later date and side by side with Austria. Finally, Britain did not wish to be a partner to a provoked war against Russia, either, despite the new course in her political life. The war crisis of 1887 offered serious lessons for Vienna. It revealed not only the poor state of military preparedness but at the same time it illustrated the great dangers the strategic dependence on Germany implied. Emil Palotás EAUTRICHE-HONGRIE ET LA CRISE DE GUERRE EN 1887/88 (Résumé) La dernière période la plus critique dans la grande crise orientale des années 80 du siècle passé s'ouvrit en été 1887 par l'élection du Ferdinand Coburg en prince bulgare, /cf. le 5 no. an 121. du Századok pour les antécédents./ Cette phase se marqua par le fait que d'ores et déjà c'étaient les conflits d'intérêts de grandes puissances et pas les affaires balkaniques qui venaient au premier plan. Pour ce temps-là la confrontation de l'Autriche-Hongrie et de la Russie - celle des pouvoirs les plus intéressés - est devenue totale.
