Mitteilungen des Österreichischen Staatsarchivs 35. (1982)
WILSON, Keith: Isolating the Isolator. Cartwright, Grey and the seduction of Austria-Hungary 1908–1912
Isolating the Isolator 193 tunity to re-establish the absolute independence of Austria-Hungary in international affairs’. It seems to me that if we carefully study the evolution of the policy pursued by Count Aehrenthal, we will see that the above view of it is a fairly correct one. In everything he has done of late Count Aehrenthal has shown a disregard for the susceptibilities of the German government, and it explains perhaps the wrath shown by the pan-German press against him, and the many attacks which he has had to encounter from the pro-German press of the Dual Monarchy. I have no doubt that Count Aehrenthal is fully informed as to the chaos which at present exists in the German political world: an emperor who, to a great extent, has retired from the direction of public affairs; a chancellor, weak and nervous and unsupported by any solid political forces behind him; the absence of political men of any influence and importance, capable of directing public opinion, and, finally, the general discontent which consequently exists in all parts of the empire with the manner in which the affairs of the nation have of late years been conducted. This state of things has given Count Aehrenthal an opportunity to assert himself, and he has done so without hesitation. It is now Berlin which has to consult Vienna quite as much, and perhaps more, than Vienna which has to consult Berlin on international questions, and if matters continue as they are doing at present, we may expect in a few years to see Austria-Hungary raised to a position of real equality with Germany in the Dual Alliance. To reach this point seems to me to be Count Aehrenthal’s real aim. At the present moment, in spite of the financial difficulties which exist here, I am told Count Aehrenthal is giving his full support to new expenditure on the army and on the fleet, because in his opinion military strength is the first requirement if the Dual Monarchy is to assert herself in the direction of European affairs. It need hardly be said that Count Aehrenthal realises the many advantages which Austria-Hungary can derive from the continuance of her alliance with Germany, but according to him the alliance is perhaps of still more importance to Germany than it is to Austria-Hungary, for Germany, without Austrian support, would find herself placed in a very awkward position, whereas if Germany were to let Austria-Hungary go, the latter would immediately find many friends among continental powers. Austria-Hungary is, therefore, not in as helpless a position as is so often believed, and if her army and her fleet are strong and well equipped, Count Aehrenthal thinks that she can effectively assert herself and become an important factor in the maintenance of the peace of the continent, acting as a moderating influence should Germany show a disposition to become too aggressive. There are indications that Count Aehrenthal successfully used his influence at Berlin the other day to moderate Germany’s demands with regard to Persia, and he appears to have impressed upon the German government that Austria-Hungary would not follow them if they raised what he considered to be a local question into an international one. Ten days ago M. Ruaut, French minister of agriculture, had an interview with the Emperor at Budapest, on which occasion His Majesty declared very clearly that it was inadmissible that the Persian question should be allowed to become a question of serious trouble between the Great Powers. Count Aehrenthal spoke in the same sense to the French ambassador a few days later, and he did this, I suspect, not so much to please France, Russia, and England, as to make Germany clearly understand that he would not allow Austria- Hungary to be dragged into conflicts on matters in which she had no direct interests to defend. It is perhaps worth reporting to you that I learn that just then Herr von Tschirschky, the German ambassador here, sent for Dr Szeps, the editor of the foreign office organ, the ‘Fremdenblatt’, and begged him to use his influence to restrain the press in issuing alarmist news with regard to Persia, as the matter was going to be arranged quietly. Ten days before that ambassador had spoken in a very different strain to various journalists and people here. It would be too long if I were to report to you the numerous minor instances which I have noticed of the delight which Count Aehrenthal takes in making the German government feel that he is ‘there’, and that he has to be consulted. To me this emanci- . Mitteilungen, Band 35 13
