Miklós Kásler - Zoltán Szentirmay (szerk.): Identifying the Árpád Dynasty Skeletons Interred in the Matthias Church. Applying data from historical, archaeological, anthropological, radiological, morphological, radiocarbon dating and genetic research (Budapest, 2021)

CHAPTER NINE – Statistical and genetic investigations for the purpose of personal identification

(the Blind) (+1141), Géza

II

(+1162), László

II

(+1163), István

IV (+1165) and Béla III

(+1196).

b) Autosomal

STR

(A-STR) marker

analyses

were

conducted in the laboratories of Dr Susanne Hummel (Göttingen,

Germany),

and Dr Judit Olasz

(Budapest,

laboratory-1), while the DNA sequencing was carried out at the Tumour Pathology Centre of the National Institute of Oncology (Budapest, laboratory-2).

c) With

regard to the fact that in our investigations we worked with fragmented DNA samples isolated from ancient bones, the CODIS-13 A-STR markers were increased to a total of 20 markers in the Göttingen

laboratory, and to a total of 18 in the Budapest laboratory.

d) We

indicated the incidence rate and mutation rate of the alleles for every marker.

e) The

statistical analysis was conducted using the latest validated measurement data.

f) Using

traditional PCR methods, skeleton 11/52 and Béla

Ill’s genotypes were found to have 4 differences out of 20 A-STR markers in the Göttingen

laboratory,

and 5 differences out of 20 in the Budapest-1 laboratory. The 5 differences were investigated with next generation DNA sequencing analysis as well in the Budapest-2 laboratory, and only one of them could be confirmed. In the course of statistical processing, however, we considered the allele data of all three laboratories individually and not as consensus data.

g) The

statistical analysis considered varying degrees of probabilities of measurement errors. At higher measurement error probabilities, the statistical analysis showed skeleton II/52_3 to be Béla

Ill

’s father, while at smaller ones, it showed him to be his grandfather. The result of the statistical analysis is displayed in Tables 14/A/B/C/D.

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