Külügyi Szemle - A Magyar Külügyi Intézet folyóirata - 2014 (13. évfolyam)
2014 / 2. szám - KÜL- ÉS BIZTONSÁGPOLITIKA, BRIT IDENTITÁS - Magyarics Tamás: Brit kül- és biztonságpolitikai dilemmák a 21. század elején
Magyarics Tamás difficult times at home. The two ultimately forced London to give up its positions east of the Suez in the 1960s. In parallel with the decline of British influence in Africa and Asia, the UK gained power in Europe when it joined the European Community on 1 January 1973. The "special relationship" with the US lost much of its strength in the 1960s but it was rejuvenated to some extent in the 1980s with the close personal relationship and shared ideology between Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. Though it is open to debate as to what extent the links between the US and the UK was "special", it is beyond any doubt that London was Washington's most important and loyal ally in Europe during the Cold War. However, this privileged position of Britain's was shattered to some extent with the disappearance of the Soviet Union: the primacy of security considerations were replaced by primarily economic ones, and the reunited Germany seems to become the single most important partner for the Americans, partly because of its leading role in the EU. The security cooperation between the US and the Europeans in general was further weakened by the current US Administration's 'pivot to Asia' - despite the fact that it would be misleading to interpret it as an "either - or" choice between the Atlantic and the Pacific regions. The key dilemma to London is that a strong US-UK link is dependent on the fact whether Great Britain can play an active role in Europe, while a British 'pivot to Europe' might force London in a number of cases to take a stand against Washington from different threat perceptions in Europe in general and the US to the debates within the framework of the TTIP. Having said that, the UK is still "punching above its weight" in international life because of its prominent positions in international institutions (the UN, NATO, the IMF, etc.), and its still strong "soft power". It may as well take a lead in European security matters within a stronger ESDP - provided the British governments were able to sustain the relatively high defence spending level at home. Finally, the worst scenario for the UK would be Scotland's leaving the union and then Great Britain's exit from the EU; it is very likely that London's influence in the world in general, and in Europe and in the "special relationship" in particular would get into a free fall. The fatal weakening of the UK as an important actor in international life is bound to trigger major geopolitical shifts with the ultimate losers being Europe and, by extension, the Atlantic Community. Jegyzetek 1 Robin Niblett: „Playing to Its Strength? Rethinking the United Kingdom's Role in a Changing World". Chatham House Briefing Paper, 2010. június. 1. o. 2 Lásd például: Matthew Holehouse: „UK Raises Foreign Aid Spending by 28 Per Cent". The Daily Telegraph, 2014. április 15. 4. o. 3 Niblett: „Playing to Its Strength?...". 4. o.; Douglas Alexander: „The UK and the World: British Foreign Policy in the 21st Century". Chatham House, http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/ view/195889, 2014. január 21. 4 Roger Bootle: „Britain Could Become the World's Fourth Largest Economy within Decades". The Daily Telegraph, 2014. május 5. B2. o. 32 Külügyi Szemle
