Külügyi Szemle - A Teleki László Intézet Külpolitikai Tanulmányok Központja folyóirata - 2002 (1. évfolyam)
2002 / 4. szám - RÉSUMÉ - Gyarmati István: Brave New World: Clash of Civilizations?
Resumé István Gyarmati: Brave New World: Clash of Civilizations? The world witnesses changes in the international order, which rival those after the Treaty of Westphalia the 17th century, when the world state order based on nationstates and the international law, regulating the relations between those states, emerged. The 21st century, however, seems to be a new phase, when states will continue to exist and be the basic players in international relations, but powerful non-state players also emerge. Non-state actors have been part of the international order, but never before were they able to project power, especially destructive power, which rivals or even exceeds the power of most states. When we look at the potential of terrorists and organized crime, which have close connection to and enjoy the support of numerous state institutions, like secret services, armies and police of several states, which are or will be in the possession of weapons of mass destruction, we have to face the terrible danger of irresponsible destruction of large parts of our civilization unless we find the necessary means to counter this threat. In the world of these extremely dangerous non-state players, determined to do as much as they can to destroy our world, we have to accept that international law and international institutions geared to deal with states, will not always be able to cope with these threats. This will pose a huge dilemma: one of the basics of democratic politics is being undermined. In democracies the rule of law is a very important element of the internal and international order. This is based on the assumption that in democracies what's right is also legal. In this new world, however, in many cases the right course of action will not be exactly legal: it might be illegal or at least outside of the international law and action undertaken might often be unilateral circumventing the existing international institutions. This will have tremendous effects on our military. The military will have to basically move away from territorial defense and face unknown dangers from any part of the world and be ready to respond to them, if necessary preemptively. This will require totally new - preemptive -doctrines and forces, trained, structures, led and equipped accordingly. No military of the world is ready for this. Americans, British, French and some other smaller countries, like the Dutch have started to move in this direction. The Hungarian armed forces, which have gone through devastating „reforms" in the last 15 years, should also consider this possibility, if we do not want to risk to be marginalized even more within NATO. 272 Külügyi Szemle
