Külpolitika - A Magyar Külügyi Intézet elméleti-politikai folyóirata - 1975 (2. évfolyam)
1975 / 2. szám - A tanulmányok orosz és angol nyelvű tartalmi kivonata
ive in the peace movement, or who could be recruited for work there. The present and future international situation, with all its complexities and contradicitions, increases the respons- ibilitites that devolve on socialist political science, and make a prompt reaction to new features in a changing world essential. Attention is given to the role of systems analysis in this work in connection with an account of studies by Burlacky and Zhurkin. Definitions first formulated by Soviet authors of notions such as planned universal peace, conflicts, and international crises are given. An account of American conflict and peace research, scholars such as Rappaport, Boul- ding and some of the schools are presented. Finally it must be stiessed that the bourgeoisie did not and cannot produce a truly scientific theory of international affairs, though much useful work has been done on particular concrete questions and it is desirable that Marxist scholars should familiarize themselves with it. Géza Kovács: Prognostics and foreign policy forecasting Increased concern with the future has been a feature of the recent past going back over some years. Futurology is concerned with discovering those trends which are likely to dominate the future, and this includes the elaboration of alternative draft policies based on them. Such alternatives are of great assistance in improving the decision taking mechanism. Attention given to the subject is increasing, and a growing number of fields is covered though, for a variety of reasons, forecasting has not made equal progress everywhere. The span of time covered depends on special features of the field concerned, on the methodology it proved possible to assemble, and on available data. When it comes to foreign policy forecasting a precise definition of the operational field is vital. The span of time must be carefully considered, and there it seems that it should be no longer than ten years. The instrumental character of foreign policy suggest that middle range plans are the most appropriate. One should therefore look ahead to a fairly distant point in time. Forecasting does not exclude short-term case studies covering a great many contingencies, the sort of thing the theory of games deals with, that used to be called war-games as part of the training and later planning activity of foreign policy strategists. Foreign policy forecasting ought to be planned. Considerable care ought to be devoted to a definition of subjects, the charting of information, a careful selection of experts, and their proper training and briefing. These are the preliminary stages of forecasting. The performance of forecasting is severely damaged if these preliminary phases are carried out in a rough and ready way. jLászló Valki: The changing concept of sovereignty It is most difficult to define sovereignty, one of those concepts of international law which are most frequently employed in the course of conflicts. Perhaps the most usual traditional definition argues that sovereignty means the undivided and unlimited power of the state at home, and its independence from foreign powers. Only such states can be considered sovereign which are independent in every field of activity, and every aspect of the decisions they take. This absolutist interpretation was born in the period when nation states first came into being. A new approach is however necessitated by the coming into being of international markets, increased international obligations undertaken by states, a system of mutual interdependencies, and the foundation and operation of the UN. On the present level of development international law is able to deal with one aspect only, and that is whether a state appears as an independent legal subject in its international relations or not. Two alternatives suggest themselves, one is to define sovereignty both in legal terms and those of politics and sociology, and the other is to harmonize the legal concept with changes in the forms of international cooperation and in social reality. The work of two famous international lawyers, Hans Kelsen and Georg Schwarzenberger is examined in this connection. The author argues that in the political and sociological sense those states can be considered sovereign which are in a state of equilibrium in the system of mutual interdependencies. Important aspects in a legal sense are the following: Legal sovereignty can only survive as long as a state remains sovereign in the political and sociological sense, sovereignty therefore VII
