Hungarian Studies Newsletter, 1975 (3. évfolyam, 6-8. szám)

1975 / 6. szám

decline was most directly the result of the legalization of induced abortion in 1956, it was ultimately a reflection of changing social and economic conditions, which affected family size goals.

By 1968, the birth rate had climbed to 15.1. The increase is believed to have occurred primarily because of a wide range of financial incentives to childbearing instituted by the government in the late 1960s. A secondary cause estimated to have been responsible for one-third of the increase was a growing proportion of women of reproductive age. The birth rate has declined slightly since then, and in 1973 it was 15.0.

An examination of age-specific fertility rates over the last 50 years shows that the declining birth rate is also the consequence of lower fertility in every age group except the age group 15-19 (see Table 3). For example, the birth rate per thousand women aged 25-29 fell from 212 in 1921 to 105 in 1972, while the birth rate for women aged 15-19 rose from 41 to 54 per thousand women during the same period.

Hungary’s declining birth rate is reflected in an increasingly smaller average family size. In the second half of the nineteenth century, the average number of children per family was five to six. By the end of the century it had fallen to five, and in

the decades immediately before and after World War I it had fallen to four. In the period following World War II, the average number of children per family declined to less than three and in the 1960s to less than two. In 1970 the average number of children per married woman at the end of her reproductive years was 2.27: in Budapest the average was 1.63; in provincial towns, 2.18; and in the villages, 2.55.

The decrease in the average completed fertility of married women is apparent in the percentage distribution of live births by birth order. As shown in Table 4, the proportion of first and second order births has increased steadily since 1938, while the proportion of all other birth orders has decreased. The decline in fertility is in no way because of an increase in childless marriages. In fact, the proportion of childless women of reproductive age decreased from 18 percent in 1949 to 14 percent in 1970.

Mortality

In 1901, the mortality rate in Hungary, 24.2 per thousand population, was one of the highest in Europe. The decline since World War I has been rapid and steady: by 1941 the rate had reached 13.2, and in 1961 it fell to a low of 9.6. In the second half of the 1960s this trend was reversed as

TABLE 3 Age-specific fertility rates, Hungary, 1921-1972

Years or average of years

Age of mother

Total of 15-49

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-49

1921

407

202.0

212.1

126.7

25.2

116.8

1930-1931

40.9

158.5

151.8

110.7

74.8

15.7

88.0

1938

42.1

146.6

134.6

92.9

57.6

13.2

73.6

1940-1941

41.1

144.9

134.5

95.8

56.6

12.1

71.3

1948-1949

46.5

163.0

137.7

88.5

54.5

11.0

75.7

1959-1960

52.5

161.5

106.2

54.5

26.3

3.4

59.7

1970

50.0

159.3

110.3

51.4

18.4

2.2

56.6

1971

50.3

157.7

103.8

49.8

17.9

2.1

55.9

1972

53.5

157.4

105.2

47.8

17.4

2.2

56.9

TABLE 4

Percentage distribution of births by birth order, Hungary, 1938, 1965, 1972

Year

Birth order

Average of birth order

First

Second

Third

Fourth,

fifth

Sixth and higher

1938

33.2

22.0

14.5

16.3

14.0

3.06

1965

48.8

29.8

10.2

7.0

4.2

2.01

1972

48.9

34.3

9.0

4.9

2.9

1.88

the proportion of the population aged 60 and over began to increase, and in 1973 the crude death rate was 11.8. The actual decrease in mortality is better seen by age-standardized death rates, which show, for example, that if the age structure of the population in

1972 were the same as in 1910, the death rate would be 6.3 instead of

11.4.

The decline in mortality has differed by age group, with the decrease becoming smaller for successively older age groups. Infant and child mortality represented 32 percent of all deaths in 1900 but accounted for

4.2 percent in 1973. Conversely, mortality among persons aged 60 and over represented 22 percent of all deaths in 1900 and 76.5 percent by 1970.

In the 1920s, infant mortality was extremely high. As a result of considerable therapeutic and preventive health measures instituted in the 1930s and 1940s, infant mortality decreased from 193 per thousand live births in 1920 to 116 in 1941. It was not until 1948, however, that the infant mortality rate fell below 100. In

1973 it was 33 per thousand live births.

The crude death rate also varies by sex. In the 1960s, mortality was 10.7-12.2 per thousand for males and 9.6- 10.5 for females. Even when the death rate for males is standardized by the age structure of women, it surpasses that of women, for example, by 43 percent in 1968.

The greater mortality rate for males is reflected in their lower average life expectancy. In 1970, the average life expectancy at birth was 66 years for males and 72 years for females.

Rate of Natural Increase

In the period prior to World War I, the annual rate of natural increase was 1.1-1.3 percent. In the 1920s it fell to about 0.9 percent and in the 1930s to 0.6 percent. As a result of a postwar increase in fertility and declining mortality, by the mid-1950s it had climbed to 1.2, but then began to decline and reached its nadir in 1962 at 0.2 percent. Although the rate of natural increase was close to 0.4 percent between 1966 and 1969, it has fallen since then to 0.3 percent.

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