Hidrológiai Közlöny, 2021 (101. évfolyam)
2021 / Különszám
115 Vörösmarty Charles J., Green Pamela A., Fekete Balázs M: A metrics-based approach mapping precursors of water conflict physical connectivity afforded by river networks within a river basin, such local pressures and threat can be translocated downstream. If a location is within an international basin, its local PCCI score is amplified by the number of nations contained within the basin. When we express the PCCI metrics using full upstream-downstream topologies to link populations that could be impacted downstream, we generate the NPRI map (Figure 2). This produces a generally similar geographical pattern of more localized conflict producing risks, but the overall pattern is intensified due to the high population densities that can accentuate any otherwise low or intermediate PCCI metrics. Figure 2. Results expressed as the Networked Populations at Risk Index (NPRI), showing western Eurasia, accounting for upstream-downstream linkages (Note: The general intensification of potential for conflicts, relative to Figure 1, demonstrates the need to link water supply generating areas, the potential conflict generating status of the water resources there produced, and upstream-to-downstream linkages that affect downstream populations based on potential water supply, geopolitical, and economic power asymmetries.) Our focus on Europe, due to high population densities relative to many other parts of the world, reveals this effect well. “Hot spots” and broader regional-scale “hot archipelagos” of water conflict risk emerge across much of the domain with particularly high NPRI values in the transboundary basins mentioned earlier (Tigris-Euphrates, Danube, Rhine, Spanish-Portuguese Rivers). And, while Scandinavia is spared from much conflict producing pressures, the high level of dependency of downstream water users relying on upstream water provisioning areas means that more stakeholders could be at risk, even though today there is relatively good governance of water and the avoidance of conflict (OSU 2020). For the region, within-country transboundary issues, not explicitly considered here, may hold the key to keeping conflicts at bay. Comparison to observed conflict geography Both Figures 1 and 2 are effectively spatial hypotheses generated by a combination of factors that we logically expect to have a role in determining the level of conflict risk. In particular, Figure 2 extends a simple mapping of localized risks by integrating risks over space, that is consistent with the way in which river corridors organize the continental landmass (Vörösmarty et al. 2000) and populations served by water resource systems or placed at risk due to poor environmental conditions, management, and/or governance (Vörösmarty et al. 2005, Green et al. 2015). How closely do these prototype maps correspond to the documented record and interpretation of conflicts? Figure 3 shows this record visually, and it illustrates that much of Europe and aforementioned areas in the surrounding Middle Eastern states show relatively high index values suggesting pressures on water resources that could set the stage for conflict. The color of each international water basin indicates the number of water-related incidents there from 1990 to 2008. None 1-3 4-15 16-40 40-126 127» Circle size indicates the number of hostile events in each basin 1-2 3-6 7-15 16-45 46« Map baud on th« Transboundory Ff osftwatn Di-puti Catabas» Figure 3. Analysis of historical record to produce a conflict mapping potential (Note: Although based on a different approach, this map summarizes quantitative dispute and conflict information and is instructive to compare to Figs. 1 and 2 (OSU, 2020).) Our mapping thus corresponds well with the documentary record. While we are proposing that the metrics chosen have the ability to identify potential flashpoints, at the same time, such stresses on water resources could provide the motivation for cooperation, as evidenced by agreements on the use of the Rhine and Danube, as a consequence of European integration (OSU 2020). Indeed, and more broadly at the strategic level, it has been found that water rather than providing a rationale for serious conflict provides more of a context for cooperation (Wolf 1998).
