Hidrológiai Közlöny 1975 (55. évfolyam)

8. szám - Dégen Imre: Kockázat szerepe, elemzésének matematikai módszerei a vízgazdálkodásban

340 Hidrológiai Közlöny 1975. 8. sz. Dégen I.: Kockázat szerepe 3HaMeHne pHCKa H iviaTeiviaTHMecKMe ivieToabi ero AHAJ!H3A B BOAHOM XO3>ITTCTBE JJeaen, H. eocydapcmeeHHbiü ceicpemapb, npocßeccop Bee BHflbl aeHTeJlbHOCTH BOAHOrO X03HMCTBa TeCHO CBH" 3aHbi c npHpoAOÍi h TexHHKO-aKOHOMH^ecKHMH npoqec­caMH. Bjiaroflapa 3T0My H3MeHeHHe nptipoaHbix ycJiOBiifi H (})OpMHpOBaHHe (})aKTOpOB, BJTHHKUHHX Ha pe3yJlbTaTHB­HOCTb SKOHOMHHeCKHX MGpOnpHHTHH, MOryT OKa3aTb «eii­CTBHe Ha TeXHHKO-3KOHOMHHeCKyiO Hafle>KHOCTb, pe>KHM 3KCNJIYATANHH, CTPONTEJIBHBIE CTOHMOCTH II SKOHOMH«­CKyiO 3(})(J)eKTHBH0CTb BOflOX03HIÍCTBeHHbIX OÖieKTOB. PemeHHH, npHHHTbie Se3 yqeTa pHCKa, B pe3yjibTaTe 3Toro MoryT npHBecra K pocTy YMEPÖOB, B TO M<e BPEMH BapwaHTbi, opueHTHpoBaHHbie Ha nojiHyio Hafle>KHOCTb (rapaHTupoBaHHocTb), TpeöyioT SKOHOMHMCCKH HeonpaB­HaHHO BbicoKHe KanHTajiOBjiOHteHHH. RWEN B BH^y CKa­3aHHoe, B CTATBE NPEFLCTABJINETCH HECKOJIBKO MATE.WATM­HecKHx MeTosoB, MoryutHX cny>KHTb aJIH oueHKH peanb­HOCTH CTeneHH SKOHOMtmecKOro pHCKa. HeyßepeHHOCTb, KAK HCTOHHHK pwcica, «JiaKTHHecKH CBH3AHA c NPUPOJIHOH, SKOHOMHMCCKOH H OSMECTBEHHOFI cpefloii, c aHTponoreHHbiMH (t)aKTopaMH h npoHcxojiHT n3-3a Hefl0CTaT0<iH0CTn HH(|>opMauHH H HecoBepuieHHoro 3H3HHH SKOHOMHiecKHX npoueccoB. CTaTbH ßOJiee nOÄ­POSHO paccMaTpuBaeT pncK, npoHCxoÄHinHH H3 ^ejicme­^ecKoro xapaKTepa, npHpoflHbix H SKOHOMHMCCKHX (J>aK­TOpOB. C T01KH 3peHHH B03MO>KHOCTH yqeTa MO>KHO pa3JTHHaTb pHCK HenpeABHjeHHbiH H PHCK npeaBHfleHHbifi H onenn­BaeMbiíí. Ha KOJiHqecTBeHHyio oueHKy CTeneHH pnci<a BJIHHIOT (JíaKTopu OKpyweHHH, a TaK>Ke HeyBepeHHOCTH, CBH3aHHbie c BbiöopKa.MH h noflöopoM MOfleneft. IloKa3biBaeTCH Ha npmwepe BBefleHHbix MOinHOCTeii Boaoxo3HiicTBeHHwx coopy>KeHHH, K3KHM 06pa30M no­HBJIHeTCH PHCK H KaK CTaHOBHTCH (JiaKTOpOM 3aTpaT HJ1H i[)aKTopoM yBeJiHieHHH npn6i>uiH. TeopeTHnecKHe HCCJieflOBaHHH acneKTOB pnci<a MoryT öbiTb Hcn0Jib30BaHbi npaKTHKOH JiHnib B TÓM cjiyqae, eejiH HMeeTCH B03MO>KHOCTb KOJIHMeCTBGHHO OHeHHTb CTCneHb pHCKa. H3 MeTOflOB, nOÄXOjiainHX AJIH yieTa CTeneHH pHCKa, CTaTbH noapoßHO paccMaTpHBaeT Teopuro nrp H TeopHio BepoHTHOCTeft. rTpnMeHCHHe Teopiin nrp HJIJIIOCT­pupyeTCH Ha npn.wepe Bbiöopa Hanöojiee noflxoflHinero BapwaHTa SJieKTpocTaHLUin. NOKA3ATEJIB, HHCJICHHO BH­pa>KaiomHH CTeneHb pHCKa, YKA3I>iBaeT, IOKHM PHCKOM HeoßXOUHMO 3a«aTbCH flJIH flOCTIDKeHHH eflHHHMHOtí npn­SbiJTH. yKa3bmaeT TaK>Ke Ha CTeneHb BO3MO>KHOCTH YWETA Cy0T>eKTHBHOCTH npHHHTHH PEUIEHHH B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT paCXO>KfleHHH B 3KOHOMHMeCKOÍÍ CHTyaqHH pa3JlHHHHX pyKOBOflHTejieií. ripHMeHeHHe MeTO^a ^jih yqeTa n KOJiimecTBeHHOíi oueHKH CTeneHH pHCKa B BOÄHOM XO3HHCTBC HjuriocTpHpy­eTCH Ha npHMepe onpeaejieHHH onTHMajibHofi MOIHHOCTII rojiOBHOro BO«oxo3HHCTBeHHoro oöieKTa. y^eT HeyBe­peHHOCTH, npoHCxoanmeii H3-3a HeflOCTaTOHHOCTii rnapo­JIORHHECKOIÍ HH({>OPMAUHH, HJIJIIOCTPHPYETCH NPAKTH'IE­CKHM npHMepOM C03AaHHH npOTHBOnaBOflKOBblX coopy­>KeHHH. B BOAHOM x03HÍicTBe npHXOflHTCH peuiaTb nepcneKTiiB­Hbie 3AAA™, BO MHOTOM npe/ÍONPE^EJTHIOMHE PA3BHTHE HapoflHoro xo3HÖCTBa. 3TH 3anam TecHO CBH3aHi,i KAK c pe3K0 KOJießjTIOIHHMHCH BO BpeMeHH npHpOflHbIMH BepO­HTHOCTHblMH npOUeCCaMH, TaK M C pa3H006pa3HbIMH H T3K>Ke H3MeHqHBbIMH HBJieHHHMH OÖmeCTBeHHO-SKOHOMH­necKOro pa3BHTHH. ri03T0My HeoßxoflHMO npHMeHeHiie TaKHX MeTOffOB, KQTopbie c TOIKH 3peHHH npai<THKH, ÄO­CTaTomio BepHO onHCbiBaioT npnpoflHbie H SKOHOMiiqecKHe yCJIOBHH (JjyHKHHOHHpOBaHHH CHCTeMbI B B TO Ke BpeMH y IIHTBIBAIOT H CTeneHb HeyBepeHHOCTH. The role and mathematics of risk in water resources analyses By Dégen, I. Undersecretary of State, Prof. All activities in water management are closely related to Nature and to technico-economic processes. For this reason changes in the natural factors, as well as in those affecting the success of economic activities are of in­fluence on the technico-economic reliability, method of operation, construction costs and economic efficiency of water resources projects. Decisions taken without regard to incertainties may result in increased losses, while solutions aiming at complete safety may prove too expensive to be econo­mically feasible. With these considerations in mind mathematical methods are presented for calculating the realistic extent up to which an economic risk can be assumed. The uncertainties forming the source of risk are rela­ted substantially to factors of natural, economic and social, i. e., human origin and are caused by inadequate information, by the limited understanding of natural and economic processes. The risk resulting from human na­ture, as well as from natural and economic factors are dealt with more in detail here. Concerning the possibility of risk allowances, risks may be classified as unknown, foreseen and calculated. The numerical determination thereof is influenced, on the other hand by environmental, sampling and model­ling uncertainties. An example associated with the design capacity of water resources projects is quoted to illustrate the role of risk and its influence on increasing the resulting costs and benefits. The theoretical investigations related to risk are use­less for economic practice, unless a method for its nume­rical expression can be found. Of these methods game­and probability theory are considered more in detail. The application of game theory is illustrated by the example of selecting the most efficient one of different alternative power projects. The, index formulated for the numerical expression of risk represents the loss which must be assumed in the hope of obtaining unit benefit. The possibilities of inclu­ding the personal opinion of decision makers with diffe­rent economic backgrounds are also indicated. The appli­cation in water management of the method suggested for the inclusion and numerical expression of risk is illustrated by an example, in which the design capacity of a water development project is optimized. Allowance for the uncertainty due to the inadequacy of hydrologic data is made in an example related to the development of flood control structures. In water management, problems controlling in many respects the evolution of the national economy and of consequences extending to long periods in the future must be solved. These are closely interwoven with the widely variable, random processes of Nature and with the similarly variable phenomena of socio-economic evolution. Attempts must therefore be made at the application of methods which describe the natural and economic processes under which the system operates, further in which allowance can be made for risk in a manner suited for practical purposes.

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