Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974 (54. évfolyam)

10. szám - Dr. Dávid László–Dr. Szidarovszky Ferenc: A vízgazdálkodás nagytávlatú fejlesztésénak dinamikus modellje

Dr. Dávid L.—

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OnTHMajlbHbIM BapHaHTOM JlBJI5ieTC» TOT, KOTOpblíi oőecneHHBaeT HaHMeHbinHÍl ymepG. OnTHMajibHoií CTpaTeriien íly^eM Ha3biBaTb Tai<yio uenb NOCJIEAOBATEABHBIX peiueHiiii (B ueJiBx pacnpeAejieHnyi orpaHimeHHbix pecypcoB MOK^y TPHMJI BHABMH OCHOBHOÍÍ AeSlTeJlbHOCTH) npH KOTOpOÍÍ TOpMOJKeHHe pocTy HaUHOHajibHoro (HTH pernoHajiHoro) floxo^a H npupocTy HapoAOHaceJieHHH AOCTHraeT HaiiMeHbiiinx pa3MepoB. Mo^EJIB H ajiropHTM ee PEMEHHFL (puc. 4) GHJIH coeraBJieHbi Ha 0CH0Be MaTeMaTHMecKoií (fopMyjinpoBKii ynoMHHyTblX yCJlOBHÍÍ. BpeMeHHoii pH,n nepeMfHHbix AJIH nflHorn B03Mo>KHoro BapnanTa pa3BHTHíi HPHBOAHTCH Ha puc. .5. Mo^ejib, ocHOBaHHaa Ha ynoMHHyTbix npHHnimax npiiMeHHMa AJ1H OUeHKH MHOrO'IHCJieHHblX BapHaHTOB C CHCTeMHbiM rroAxoflOM, HccJieflOBaHne KOTOpwx HeofíxofliiMO npn nepcneKTHBHOM njiaHupoBaHHH H BbiGope onTHMaJibHoro BapnaHTa pa3BHTna. Dynamic model of long-term water management development Part I. Hi/ Dr. Dávid, L. — Dr. Szidarovszky, F. The significance of water management increases together with socio-economic evolution. However, increasing resources must be expended for establishing the balance between the natural water regime and the demands of society, these resouces begin in general limited in their availability. The aim of the dynamic water management development model and the practical application thereof is to select the optimal development strategy and to promote the most efficient use of the resources in expanding socio-economic systems with limited resources available. The factors forming the model and the interrelations thereof are shown in Fig. 1. In any development period the requirements for water management (fresh-water demand, water uses, water damage aversion) of socio-economic evolution planned in a particular catchment area can be satisfied by the basic activities, such as runoff control, water acquisitionsupply, wastewater treatment, of water management. The water supplies available to society can be increased by runoff control ( Fig. 2 ). In this activity the resources (funds, professionals, power and water) are made available by society and Nature, respectively. If the resources are sufficient in amount and in their distribution among the fundamental activities for performing the necessary basic water management activities, then there are no obstacles from the side of water management to the realization of the socio-ecconoinic evolution contemplated. On the other hand, if the amount of resources is less than that needed for ideal development, then the basic water management activities are uncapable of meeting the requirements of society. In such cases losses result, the magnitude of which depends on the extent of shortage tolerance and which cause after a certain time lapse the rate of economic- and population growth to decline. The magnitude of losses can be characterized with the help of the damage situations ( Fig. 3) and depends on the amount of resources available, as well as on the distribution thereof among the fundamental activities, these forming the decision variables. The latter are combined into the development strategy. Any development alternative formed of the set of resources and the development strategy entails a loss, indicating the lower level of attainment by a particular alternative relative to the evolution envisaged. The target function of the model measures the magnitude of this loss in the case of the potential development alternatives. The optimal alternative is that resulting in the smallest loss. The optimal strategy is thus understood as the series of decisions concerning the distribution of the limited resources available among the three basic activities, at which the retardation of the growth in national (regional) income and in population number is smallest. By giving the criteria and relations outlined above a mathematical formulation the model itself and the algorithm of solution have been composed (Fig. 4). The time series of variables for a potential development alternative is shown in Fig.

5. The model composed on the basis of the foregoing principles is suited to the assessment according to the methods of systems analysis of the great number of alternatives that are essential in long-term planning, and thus to the selection of the optimal development alternative.