Vízügyi Közlemények, 1992 (74. évfolyam)

4. füzet - Domokos Miklós: Összesítő vízmérleg és szimulációs rendszermodell

Összesítő vízmérleg és a szimulációs rendszennodell 395 ves to the EVM of the system, and by the ranking of these alternatives according to their degree of conformity with the F.VM. This procedure is split sometimes into various stages: for example; first a ranking is made using economic-mathematical procedures on the basis of the sub-matrix of economic parameters and the other quantifiable and non-quantifiable elements of the EVM will be analyzed subsequently only. The quantifiable elements of the EVM can - in a more general concept - be represented by pairs of values, one component of whose is a limit value (upper or lower limit), while the other one is the desired minimum probability of not violating this limit value. When one is to carry out (as the first step the design of the system on the basis of the economic characteristics of the EVM only, the following procedure can be followed: In the phase of planning certain parameters of the system (such as; magnitude and operation rules of reservoirs and water diversions, rates of production and their tolerance to water shortages, degree of waste water treatment etc.) can be altered. Next the design of the system is made by simulating the operation of the system with a long series of possible combinations of the above variable parameters values, while keeping the rest of the parameters fixed (such as; water flow, data of water users, cost functions etc.). The economic result achieved, or the extent of economic damage prevented, by the system is calculated for each of the combinations of the parameters, in terms of multiannual average values. The economically optimum alternative is the one with the highest economic achievement or with the largest prevented damage (e. g. where the objective function of the system has its maximum or minimum, respectively). The design of the system on the basis of natural indeces (that is without introducing economic criteria) is discussed by the author in the light of a simulation case study example of Lake Balaton, having a drainage basin area of 5774 km

2 (Fig. 2.). The objective of this model study was to analyze for various future scenarios (decision alternatives) the effects of various control measures (for example; construction of reservoirs on the drainage basin, modification of the range of water level regulation of the lake), that is to determine the probabilities of meeting ihe demands of water level regulation, water supply, water quality etc. Results of the simulation study are summarized in Table II. and in Fig. 3.. The latter indicates the dependence of selected indices of the effectiveness of the operation of the system on the total volume of reservoirs (S) to be constructed on the drainage basin. These indices are: the safety of meeting water demands (R)\ the relative duration (ű) and average extent (<5) of violating the prescribed limits of the water level of the lake, and the average water volume (T) released from the lake without utilization. One of the general concepts of simulating on the basis of economic criteria is presented in the form of equations 1. and 2. The objective function (2) is the minimization of the sum (L) of lossess due to water shortages (/-У) and the costs of constructing and operating the reservoirs of the system. Finally the author presents a review of models used in the relevant literature for optimizing economic objective functions. * • * Summierende Wasserwirtschaftsbilanz lind Simulationsmodelle wasserwirtschaftlicher Systeme von Dr. Ing. Dipl. Math. Miklós DOMOKOS Die Wasserwirtschaft der mitteleuropäischen Staaten, darunter Ungarns, erreicht allmählich ein Niveau, bei welchem, infolge der allgemeinen Erhöhung und zunehmenden Konzentration der Wasseransprüche, die einfachen Arbeitsmittel der extensiven Wasservorratswirtschaft (summierende Wasserwirtschaftsbilanz, wasserwirtschaftlicher Längsschnitt) nicht mehr ausreichen (Bild 1). Infolge dessen muß man zunächst in der Planung, und dann auch im Betrieb all-