Miklós Kásler - Zoltán Szentirmay (szerk.): Identifying the Árpád Dynasty Skeletons Interred in the Matthias Church. Applying data from historical, archaeological, anthropological, radiological, morphological, radiocarbon dating and genetic research (Budapest, 2021)
CHAPTER NINE – Statistical and genetic investigations for the purpose of personal identification
Tables 14/A/B/C/D. Relatedness between Béla III and skeleton II/52_3 at error probabilities of0.1250, 0.06250, 0.03125 and 0.01563 (12.5%, 6.25%, 3.125% 1.563%). In the table, the data are displayed in a negative logarithmic likelihood format, so the probability of a connection increases as the related likelihood value decreases. The numerical value in the difference (DIFF) column denotes the likelihood difference between grandfather and father; positive values represent a probable father, while negatives represent a probable grandfather. The higher the value of the negative likelihood difference, the higher the probability of the result. We gradually decreased the allele detection (measurement) statistical error probability pertaining to skeleton 11/52 which was ultimately taken into account in the statistical analyses until we reached 1.563% from 12.5%. The starting value is the error probability of 0.1250, the corresponding total likelihood difference is 1.016. This value suggests that skeleton II/52_3 and Béla III were father and son. As we gradually decreased the probability, we observed the changes in likelihood values. At a measurement error of 0.06250, the total likelihood difference is already at an error probability -2.8112, which suggests that skeleton 11/52 and Béla III were grandfather and grandson. The probability of a grandfather-grandson relationship between skeleton 11/52 and Béla III gradually increases between measurement error probabilities 0.03125 and 0.01563, and the total likelihood values are -7.6984 and -12.9647, respectively. Accordingly, the statistical analysis strongly suggests that skeleton 11/52 is Béla II. 175
