Külügyi Szemle - A Magyar Külügyi Intézet folyóirata - 2012 (11. évfolyam)
2012 / 1. szám - AZ "ARAB TAVASZ" GEOPOLITIKÁJA - Rostoványi Zsolt: Az "arab tavasz" hatása a Közel-Kelet geopolitikai térképének újrarendeződésére
Az „arab tavasz" hatása 84 Líbiában Törökországnak hatalmas befektetései voltak, s huszonötezer török vendégmunkás dolgozott az országban. 85 Talán egyetlen vezető sem folytatott annyi és olyan hosszas telefonbeszélgetést a Szíriái elnökkel, mint Erdogan - véli a BBC isztambuli tudósítója. Lásd Head: „Turkey's Dilemma over Syrian Unrest". 86 „Turkey Warns Syria to Stop Crackdown". The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/ world/europe/16turkey.html?_r=l, 2011. augusztus 15. 87 „Why Turkey's Erdogan Is Greeted like a Rock Star in Egypt". Time, http://www.time.com/time/ world/article/0,8599,2093090,00.html, 2011. szeptember 13. 88 Vö. „Egypt Spoils Erdogan's Visit". Globes, http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview . asp?did=1000683400&fid=4111,2011. szeptember 18. 89 „Erdogan's Visit to Egypt Good Political Theater". Connected in Cairo.com, http://connectedincairo . com/2011/09/16/erdogans-visit-to-egypt-good-political-theater/, 2011. szeptember 16. 90 Patrick Cockburn: „Turkish PM Sets out on Mission to Become Leader of the Arab World". The Independent, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkish-pm-sets-out-on-mission- to-become-leader-of-arab-world-2353684.html , 2011. szeptember 13. 91 Harun Yahya (Adnan Oktar): „Turkey Is the Natural Leader of the Arab World". http://usl . harunyahya.eom/Detail/T/EDCRFV/productId/25322/TURKEYJS_THE_NATURAL_LEADER_ OF_THE_ARAB_WORLD, 2008. október 16. Résumé The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Re-Organization of the Geopolitical Map of the Middle East The 2Tt-century-Middle East shows several new characteristics as compared to those of the 20th century, at least from a geopolitical point of view. It was especially two chains of events that have influenced the balance of power. One of them is the 9/11 terror attacks and the following Middle East policy of the Bush administration, including the war in Iraq and its consequences; the other is the Arab Spring a decade later. The latter has partly strengthened the changes that took a definite turn a decade before, and partly have modified them. Naturally, there are no concrete time limits, therefore, the antecedents (in a reverse order) cannot be disregarded: the end of the Cold War, the defeat of the nationalist-socialist ideologies and social systems in connection with the 1967 war, the simultaneous revival of Islamism, the taking root of the nation-state as a transplant with the independence of the Arab states and the fragmenting impact thereof on the "all-Arab" case and the "united Arab world". The most important geopolitical changes of the 21st ("new") Middle East include the direct presence of the USA and the "democratization of the Middle East" project; the shifting of the balance of power from a former Arab centre to the non-Arab periphery and the "Shiite awakening". The Arab Spring reflected the decrease of US support within the region and the increasing independence of its regional allies, Russia's active presence, the weakening of Iran's positions, a new Arab consciousness, further Turkish activization and Israel's increasing isolation. However, the Arab Spring was followed by an Islamist winter. 2012. tavasz 71
