Külügyi Szemle - A Magyar Külügyi Intézet folyóirata - 2009 (8. évfolyam)
2009 / 4. szám - TÖMEGPUSZTÍTÓ FEGYVEREK - Balogh István: Törökország közvetítő szerepe az iráni atomvitában
Résumé The Potential Role of Turkey in the Iranian Nuclear Debate The essay aims at exploring the possibility whether Turkey can play the role of a mediator between Tehran and Washington in the Iranian nuclear debate. The conclusion is that Turkey enjoys quite good chances to play such a role. The first section of the paper discusses some of the most relevant conclusions of the theories of mediation, while the second one concentrates on testing these theories. The author is analyzing the possibility of a Turkish mediation on the basis of the work of Marvin C. Ott in the first place. Ott argues that the possibility of mediation in a conflict depends on the following factors. 1) The distribution of power between the parties involved in the conflict. 2) The interests of the parties. 3) The costs involved in case the settlement of the conflict fails. 4) The personal relations between the parties in the mediation process. And 5) whether there is a mediator who possesses adequate information about the region and who has the right timing to mediate. The author has come to the conclusion based on this model that Turkey may be able to play the role on a mediator. However, it must be mentioned that the Turlish mediation is likely to make only a more intimate dialogue possible because of the sensitive questions involved instead of settling the conflict between the two sides fully and definitely. 2009. tél 37
