Külügyi Szemle - A Teleki László Intézet Külpolitikai Tanulmányok Központja folyóirata - 2003 (2. évfolyam)
2003 / 3. szám - BIZTONSÁGPOLITIKA - Dunay Pál: A fegyverzetkorlátozás végnapjai Európában
Résumé The Last Days of Arms Control In Europe Since the end of the East-West conflict arms control has been looking for its place in Europe. The reaction of the arms control establishments to the change of the international regime has been largely inadequate and consisted of five elements: 1. It was claimed that the process of arms control does not come to an end with the conclusion of agreements, it also includes their implementation, verification and operating those forums which were established in relation to them. 2. Negotiations that aimed to address some pending arrangements continued irrespective of the fundamental change (CFE talks, Open Skies negotiations, new CSBM package). 3. The purpose of the harmonisation of arms control obligations, extending commitments to European countries, which were not parties to CFE and Open Skies was declared. 4. The intention to introduce arms control measures as part of conflict resolution, like the one in Bosnia and Herzegovina after the Dayton accord was declared. 5. Measures, which form part of the concept of human security, like the anti-personnel land-mine ban or the measures addressing small arms and light weapons were widely accepted on the European agenda. The latter development is an offspring not only of the increasing dominance of the human security concept but also of Europe's contribution to global arms control. The adaptation has been largely unsuccessful due to the attempt of the states to pretend that it is business as usual‘in post-Cold War European arms control. The continuing decline of arms control in Europe has been overshadowed by two recent developments lately: The debates about bringing the adapted CFE Treaty into force and the recent entry into force of the Open Skies Treaty of 1992. As the decline is due to objective reasons primarily, there is practically no chance that arms control could regain its major role in Europe. There is no need for arms control as the "centre of the conflict" left Europe upon the end of the Cold war and current conflicts could at best be affected marginally by its means and the unipolar power sees no reason for arms control in Europe specifically either. The decline is also due to that the recently emerging conflicts are due to extreme nationalism, economic compression and bad (though often elected) leadership - sources that can hardly be influenced by the means of arms control. The subjective mistake of insufficient reorientation of arms control has exacerbated the situation further. In sum, there is no prospect for arms control in Europe despite the temporary upswing. 2003. ősz 117
