Külügyi Szemle - A Teleki László Intézet Külpolitikai Tanulmányok Központja folyóirata - 2003 (2. évfolyam)
2003 / 1. szám - KÖZEL-KELET - Gazdik Gyula: The evolution of the Israeli party system
The evolution of the Israeli party system was disrupted by the convoluted corruption scandal involving a spectrum of politicians from the top to the bottom. Following the Likud elections, updates with respect to the corruption scandal remained an everyday issue in the media. Among others, it transpired that several persons that earlier came into conflict with the law - but enjoying high-level political support - made efforts to become elected into the Likud CC. In this respect, several candidates paid mediated bribes to party members for their votes. Moreover, during premiership elections, party-loyalists had offered various concessions in order to gather extra votes for Sharon. Such incidents had also recurred during the Knesset list elections. The party had been further discredited by the police investigations with respect to dubious financial dealings involving - among others - Sharon's two sons that became entangled during the 1999 party presidential elections. According to public surveys carried out in the first half of January 2003 - in light of the scandals - projected Likud mandates had dropped below 30. Fortunately for Sharon's party this trend reversed in the second half of January. The day before the elections, the prognoses had signalled that the right wing and religious parties would become the dominant force with 67 mandates, followed by the left wing and Arab parties with 37 and the centre with 16 mandates. Among the major parties Likud would receive 30-31 mandates, the Labour Party 18-19, the Shas 13 and the Shinui 14.43 The results of the January 28 elections more or less confirmed the forecast, however, there were some surprises. One of these included the unexpectedly low voter turnout of 68.5 per cent. Barring the 2001 February premiership elections, this was the lowest ever voter participation in the history of Israeli elections. According to the unofficial results, the right wing-religious parties received the predicted 67 mandates, while the left wing and Arab parties received 33, less than the predicted number and the Shinui and Am Ehad centre gained 18 mandates, two more than expected. Among the bigger parties, with 38 mandates Likud performed better than expected, Labour gained 19 and Shinui came third with 15, followed by Shas with 11 mandates. The biggest surprise was caused by the performance of the Meretz and Sharansky-led parties receiving only a total of 6 and 2 mandates respectively.44 By and large, Likud's recovery after the nadir of the 1999 elections resulted from a combination of factors: due to the deteriorating security conditions - in contrast to previous periods they rallied more support from the centre, in addition it attracted or recovered more votes from the grassroots electorate of the far right. Consequently, the Shas - previously a beneficiary of Likud's decline - became the biggest loser. Likud's increased openness towards the burgeoning „neo-nationalist" trend in Israeli society also contributed to winning right wing support. The supporters of these extremely heterogeneous collection of political entities - comprising the nationalists of the NRP, the settlers' representatives, ultra-orthodox spiritual leaders, the new secular right, including members of the Lieberman-led Russian immigrant community - apart from 2003. tavasz 57
