Hungarian Studies Newsletter, 1975 (3. évfolyam, 6-8. szám)
1975 / 6. szám
tutes are included in schools of the third level. The numbers of women completing secondary school and university have been growing at rates greater than those of males. As a result, the large difference that once existed between the sexes in educational attainment has been greatly reduced in recent years. For example, in 1949 the percentage of males aged 25 and over having a university degree was six times greater than that of females; in 1970 it was less than three times greater. Economic Status In the last 30 years, considerable changes have occurred in the economic status of the Hungarian population. Although the percentage of the population that is economically active has not increased greatly (from 45.1 percent in 1941 to 48.3 percent in 1970), the proportion that is dependent has declined considerably (from 52.7 percent to 38.2 percent in the same period). This apparent discrepancy is the result of the large increase in the proportion of inactive earners—pensioners, rentiers, women on child care allowances, and so on. In 1970, the number of dependents and inactive earners per 100 economically active persons was 106. In terms of households, there were 143 economically active persons per 100 households. Thirty-five percent of all households included one economically active person, 35 percent included two, 12 percent included three or more, and 18 percent contained no economically active persons. The economic status of women underwent the greatest change during this period: the percentage of dependent females declined from 74 percent in 1941 to 47 percent in 1970. The extent of female participation in the labor force is better seen when broken down by age groups: 70 percent of women aged 15-54, 81 percent of women aged 20-24, and 77 percent of women aged 20-39 were employed in 1970. Future Trends The Hungarian Demographic Research Institute made population projections through the year 2000 on the basis of three hypotheses. According TABLE 6 Percentage distribution of economically active persons by sector, Hungary, 1949-1972 Sector 1949 1960 1970 1972 Industry 20 28 37 57 Construction 2 6 7 10 Agriculture, forestry 54 39 26 17 Transportation 4 6 7 5 Trade 5 6 8 9 Other 15 15 15 2 Total Percent 100 100 100 100 Number (thousands) 4,085 4,760 5,001 to the first hypothesis, the age-specific fertility of 1971 would remain stable throughout the period. Under this hypothesis, in 2000 the population of the country would be 10.5 million. According to the second hypothesis, age-specific fertility would fluctuate from year to year between 1972 and 1990 and remain stable from 1990 to 2000. Under this hypothesis, in 2000 the population would total 10.8 million. According to the third hypothesis, the number of live births would develop according to the agespecific fertility rate of 1971 between 1972 and 1976, according to the 1968 rate from 1977 to 1982, and according to the age-specific fertility rate of 1958 from 1983 to 2000. Under this hypothesis, in 2000 the population would number 10.9 million. At the current population growth rate of 0.3 percent, it will take 231 years for the population to double. Population Growth and Socioeconomic Development Per capita gross national product has more than doubled since 1960. It was US$1,910 in 1970.1 Relationship to National Economy During the last 25 years, the structure of the Hungarian economy has changed considerably, with the predominant shift occurring in agriculture and industry (see Table 6). The proportion of economically active persons engaged in agriculture dropped from 50 percent in 1949 to about 25 1 US$1.00 = 23.28 forints (May 1974). 9 percent in 1970. During this same period, the proportion working in industry, construction, and the building trades doubled. Since 1960, the percentage of persons employed in manual work has declined from 83 to 74 percent. The decline of fertility in Hungary is largely the result of radical changes that have occurred in the social structure and in the national economy since the 1950s. The shift from a primarily agricultural economy to an increasingly industrial economy resulted in greater social mobility and a decrease in the agricultural population, which has traditionally had higher fertility. Because of migration from villages to provincial towns and cities, the educational level and, in turn, the cultural and economic aspirations of the population rose. The growing demand for labor produced by national efforts toward development, as well as by the above factors, brought larger numbers of women into the labor force. The higher standard of living and the changed aspirations of women that have resulted from their increased participation in the labor force have brought about significant changes in family life patterns and desired family size. In addition, the decline in infant and child mortality and the increased cost of raising a child have resulted in the desire for smaller families. Relationship to Agriculture Until the end of World War II, in the economic life of the country, agricultural production dominated under property conditions that remained from feudalism. In this period, the
