Hungarian Heritage Review, 1991 (20. évfolyam, 1-11. szám)
1991-03-01 / 3. szám
Dateline: Budapest ' THE JOSEPH ANTALL REPORT "This past winter, Hungary reached a crossroad. If it fails to halt the sharp decline and boost the economy, the social tensions that will emerge will put the survival of the newly born political democracy and parliamentary system at stake. The crossroad is there before us: the question is which road to take and what path this whole region will follow", Antall said. Speaking of the 1991 budget, the Prime Minister highlighted the crippling legacy to be taken on, but insisted that it was not to be avoided. He said the country's foreign debts amounted to 21 - million dollars, and that 2.4-million dollars of credit and 1.7-million dollars of interest would have to be paid. Of the 21-million dollars, hardly more than 4-million have been invested, with the remainder used to finance repayments. Antall also pointed out that the productivity of Hungarian industry was only one-third of that of the West, while specific energy consumption was almost three times as high as in the advanced countries. Hungary, he emphasized, should invest 250-million forints in developing its backward infrastructure. This sum and no less is required for developing rail and road networks, as well as telecommunications. However, as these fields are being shortfunded, the country is losing 80,000 to 100,000 million forints a year. "As Comecon caves in", Antall said, "the structure of the Hungarian economy has taken not a few dents. The drought and the Gulf crisis have also caused considerable damage. The central budget must bear all these burdens". Convertible accounting with the Soviet Union and other East Central European countries, the Prime Minister added, will benefit the Hungarian economy in the long term. Nevertheless, the imminent transition to convertible accounting, the oil price rises, and the drought are expected to inflict a loss of many millions of dollars upon this year's economy, a loss tantamount of 10% of public consumption. He also said that exports to the Soviet Union and other Comecon countries were down by 25%. Up to now, however, the Hungarian economy has been able to offset part of this decrease with exports to the West. The Prime Minister called for unity which he described as crucial in order to tide the country over the hard times ahead. He said the establishment of a market economy was the only possible way forward, which would entail the future prevalence of private property in the economy, Enterprise should be encouraged, and foreign capital and funds accumulated by citizens mobilized. The central budget will show a deficit of 78,000 million forints this year, according to Antall. This ceiling should not be exceeded, or inflation will be let loose and the Hungarian economy bankrupted. Economic transformation would raise grave social problems. At present, there are 61,000 registered unemployed in Hungary, with their number set to double or even, as pessimists say, to treble this year. 1991 will be a year of hardship, but 1992's slow recovery can only come at this price. Stability, confidence, and sacrifice are crucial. The three together can only guarantee economic and social stability, Antall said. (EDITOR'S NOTE: The above are excerpts from what Prime Minister Joseph Antall said in the Hungarian Parliament. From this, alone, it is obvious that, if the new Republic of Hungary is not helped by the West, Hungary's experiment with Parliamentary Democracy will be in danger.) 10 HUNGARIAN HERITAGE REVIEW MARCH 1991
