Hidrológiai Közlöny, 2021 (101. évfolyam)
2021 / Különszám
114 Hidrológiai Közlöny 2021. 101. évf. különszám monthly discharge computed using GPCC-NCEP data forcing for year 2014, expressed on a grid-cell basis at a 6’ (latitude/longitude) resolution as an approximation for our prototype experiment. Proper implementation will require the analyses of long time series records of the hydrological conditions in combination with climate projection from Global Circulation Models. Human dimension factor inputs Given the intrinsic role that water plays in supporting basic human survival as well as the global economy, any analysis of the conflict precursors will logically attempt to represent some of its basic human dimensions, particularly those that reflect the capacity of society to manage its water systems and their potential challenges. The collection of nation-states, as well as any asymmetries in the upstream-downstream abundance, quality, and human-directed control of water resources are at the heart of the transboundary complexity metric, which gives rise to water-conflict inducing stresses (Diehl and Gleditsch 2018). (While sub-national transboundary complexity also can arise, we have not considered this in the current, prototyping context.) Additionally, the capacity of countries to govern water (and more generally other elements of their society) successfully is yet another important factor. These we capture through the fragile states index, as defined by the Fund for Peace (2015). Key Output Metrics We map two geospatial indices, with each arising from the combination of the biogeophysical and human dimensions indices described earlier. The first index is a spatially-distributed picture of potential conflict-inducing conditions that maps conditions at the grid cell level, where each such 6’ (L/L) pixel is computed independently. From this mapping, a detailed geography can be constructed of where potential water conflict stresses are located. The second index attempts to place these into a more holistic context organized by river corridor networks. Thus, while management actions can be targeted to particular grid cells (e.g., rehabilitating degraded landscapes), their ultimate value can be recognized more completely when we link these to downstream populations, thus helping decision-makers to improve their planning so as to maximize the total number of beneficiaries or value of economic assets associated with them. Prototype Composite Conflict Index (PCCI) We create from the biogeophysical threat factor and human dimensions factor a normalized, ranked set of indicators (0-1), which are combined to create the composite PCCI. These define more-or-less the localized, spatial context in which pressures on the water resource base arise. We explicitly assume that the presence of higher ranked values creates a higher propensity to produce potential conflict, whereas the absence creates the opposite effect. Networked Populations at Risk Index (NPRI) Two additional elements we regard as meaningful in defining the landscape of potential conflict are the spatial organization of potential conflict-producing conditions and the potentially affected populations that are linked to such conditions. These define an upstream-downstream topology that can be articulated through digital river networks. This network-based metric uses a river corridor lens and populations at risk who live downstream. In previous publications, we mapped the upstream-downstream relationships between water provisioning areas serving downstream populations (Vörösmarty et al. 2005). We also employed this approach to map the impact of degraded upstream ecosystems on downstream populations {Green et al. 2015) as well as the contemporary capacity of protected areas to support water provisioning services for downstream users (Harrison and Alatout 2016). We combine these technical approaches to first map the spatial organization of upstream (using the PCCI), and then link this compound index to downstream populations affected to generate the NPRI. Estimating the intensity of conflictinducing pressures, where they arise upstream, how they are translated spatially downstream, and onto which human populations is essential for understanding the domain of possibilities under which conflicts arise. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Composite Index Mapping Patterns in the PCCI Figure 1 displays a broad region encompassing Europe and parts of the Middle East that demonstrate a wide range of conflict potential, using the PCCI metric. As might be expected, the Scandinavian countries and much of Europe have low or modest levels of potential for conflict. Using the PCCI, however, we see moderate levels associated with the Danube River basin, and to some degree the Rhine, reflecting their multi-national status. Moderate values are also seen in Spain and some of its shared basins with Portugal (Tagus, Guadiana). In the south-eastern quadrant of this map, we see moderate levels in the Kura- Araks basin that empties into the Caspian Sea. The metric captures much higher levels in the Tigris-Euphrates as well as the Jordan River, both are well-documented conflict zones (Harris et al. 2010). Figure 1. Application of the local conflict indicator to Europe and the Middle East (Note: The indicator shown here shows areas with extremely different climates, from the wet north to the dry Mediterranean.) Networked Populations at Risk (NPRI) The map in Figure 1 shows essentially local conditions that could contribute to conflict, but given the nature of
