Hidrológiai Közlöny 1987 (67. évfolyam)

5-6. szám - Kovács György: Nagy nemzetközi folyók vízgazdálkodási döntéseit segítő rendszerek

254 HIDROLÓGIAI KÖZLÖNY 1987. 67. ÉVFOLYAM, 5—6. SZATJ Decision Support Systems for Managing Large International Rivers Gy. Kovács Abstract: The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IEASA, Laxenburg, Austria, is an international institution dealing with the practical applications of the most recent advances in theoretical research. Hungarian scientists of the water sector have maintained close relationships with IIASA and applied successfully a number of joint results in solving water management problems encountered here. The scientific efforts towards controlling eutrophication in Lake Balaton may be quoted as perhaps the most outstanding result. One of the most recent aims of the applied systems analysis studies at the IIASA is the development of Decision Support Systems (DSS), to provide computerized assistance in decision making. Several DSS have in recent years been developed at IIASA for solving problems in regional water management. A new project was launched in 1986 to develope a DSS for the basin of large international rivers. The objective of the project is to prepare methodological studies and to formulate PC based model sets for short- and long-term forecasts on the complex environmental and socio-economic impacts of alternative planning and management strategies in these river basins. Beyond the limitations in time and funding, the main obstacle to the hydrological and economic approach of DSS formulation is the scale of project implementation. Consequent therefrom, no „conventional" DSS can be formulated under the present project, owing to the hardware limitations of the PC based system alone. Basically, the system is composed of modules, each concerned with particular spheres of land use and water management activities and predicting the anticipated impacts thereof. Another consequence of the limiting circumstances is that in the first stage the expected impacts of the assumed scenarios will be expressed in technical (physical) quantities only. The duration evisaged for the project is three years and can thus form the first stage only of the subsequent work. The first stage will be devoted to the formulation of the modules needed for solving the problems arising also in the case studies (the basins of the Danube and the Zambezi) contemplated. The system will, however, remain an open one, to which additional modules can be attached at a later date. A small coordinating group is alone available at the IIASA, so that the cooperating institutions will have to assume a major share in project implementation. One of the most important of these in Hungary is VITUKI, which has already contributed to the compilation of the work programme and the methodology, further by the preparation of data processing, display and simulation computer programmes to project implementation. The conventional „core" of the interactive DSS is being prepared jointly by Cornell University, USA and the Geophysical Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Methodological studies and computer models, which owing to the complexity of the processes involved defy simplification to a form directly fitting the DSS devised for the PC

—AT represent, ancillary parts of project implementation. The results obtained thereby will, however, be presented and displayed in the DSS. The computerized data handling system intended to meet the data demands of the simulation models at the different levels of decision making hierarchy will constitute another organic part of the DSS. The project will rely on the WMO/HOMS components for this purpose. Staff members of VlTUKI have been engaged in the compilation of the latter. The basic human activities analyzed under the project are dealt with in groups classified according to land use, runoff control and stream pollution. The detailed work programme of the project is describe'! finally. Keywords: decision support systems, large streams, computer simulation, hydrology, water quality, modelling KOVÁCS GYÖRGY Budapesten született 1925-ben. A Magyar Tudományos Akadámia levelező tagja, a/. Eötvös Loránd Tudományegyetem címzetes egyetemi tanára. Mérnöki gyakorlatát k ivitelezőkónt kezdte. Adjunktusként tanított a Műegyetemen, majd hosszú ideig tervezőként dolgozott. A tervezésben munkaköre fokozatosan helyeződött át a kiviteli tervekről az előmunkálatokra, ami már közel hozta jelenlegi tevékenységi köréhez, a kutatáshoz. Közben hosszabb időt töltöttaz 0 VH-ban is, mint a Vízgazdálkodási Főosztály vezetője. A VITUKl-nak főigazgatója volt, majd kutatóprofesszorként dolgozott 1986 decemberéig, amikor nyugdíjba vonult. Jelenleg a Nemzetközi Alkalmazott Renddszerelemzósi Intézetben (HASA) projektvezető. Legfontosabb kutatási területe a szivárgás hidraulikájaósafelszín alatti vizek hidrológiája. Ebben a témakörben jelent meg legtöbb könyve és tanulmánya. A 250-et meghaladó számú publikáció között azonban a vízügyi kutatás számos más területével —- felszíni vizek hidrológiájával, mérnökgeológiával, vízgazdálkodás politikával, nemzetközi vízjoggal — foglalkozó dolgozatot is találunk. Tudományos munkásságát Eötvös Loránd Díjjal, Schafarzik éremmel ós Péch-emlóklappal jutalmazták. Nemzetközi elismertségét jelzi, hogy elnöke volt az UNESCO Nemzetközi Hidrológiai Program (IHP) Koordináló Tanácsának, és jelenleg is elnöke a Nemzetközi Hidrológiai Szövetségnek (IAHS).