Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974 (54. évfolyam)

3-4. szám - Könyvismertetés

Hidrológiai Közlöny 1974. 3—4. sz. 137 referred to the general development concepts of water management which is the first and very important step in the this field. This document defines the scope and field of long-term water management planning from many points of view. The above manifold and highly responsible task cannot be solved correctly in its whole perspective, unless highly qualified specialists are joined in a suitable organization whose opinion is respected where long-term planning is dealt with and where long-term plans are broken down to actual projects. This staff of experts is already available and gains continuously in knowledge and professional experience. This professional knowledge is appreciated beyond the borders of the country, too, and we have been invited to compile long-term water management plans in a number of coutries. For example in Mongolia, the Mongolian Water Management Master Plan will be completed next year and preparations are made to start long-term water management planning. The basis of long-term water management planning is the long-term forecast of the natural conditions, which are the consequences of production processes on and under the surface, further the determination of the demands in the national economy or briefly the examination of man and his environment. This is the main subject of economic planning, which includes the economic examination of the water demands of society, together, with the means and possibilities of meeting these; the survey and analysis of the tendencies of future development trends, and finally the preparation of plans, programs and studies forming the basis of decisions related to development. Starting out from these two bases — nature and man — the long-term plans of water management are compiled by elaborating perspective- and medium-term plans. The determination of water management requirements resulting from social transformation, from economic development, from international co-operation and from the rising living standard further the exploration of ways of satisfying these are the task of long-term water management planning. Medium-term water management plans identify the proportional part of the more important water development objectives envisaged in the long-term plan for a longer period, generally five years, and specified for the water management branches, further the uniform system and quantities of the technical — economic means needed for the realization. The measure of the level of long-term water management planning is the water management master plan of the individual countries. Once a certain efficiency and experience is reached in long-term water management planning, the first qualitative change will normally ensue when long-term water management plans covering some 20—25 years are prepared for the whole country in a relatively short period, thus assuring the co-ordinated and complex character of planning. In this country the first and modest draft of the national water management master plan was prepared among the first as early as in 1954, founded on the 100 years long history of water management. Under its impact water management improved and inspiration was gained for the very detailed second National Master Plan which was enacted in 1964. In this Master Plan the principles specified by the great Hungarian hydraulic engineers are generally observed, however, with differences first of all because of the minor details in the chapters on regional water management. It has been recognized by now that of the chapters of the Water Management Master Plan those are of extended validity in which the possibilities of perspective development are described while those giving actual solutions have become obsolete. It is also realized that in the National Water Management Master Plan the description of a process is included, considering the initial condition and this process was considered as the reflection of developments envisaged in the diverse the branches of economy. We are aware of the fact that the trends of development could not be predicted accurately, because of the very complicated factors affecting it. For this reason the National Water Management Master Plan as a longand medium term Master Plan must be adjusted continuously to the current conditions in order to find the optimum set of water management development objectives. This is possible only in an organization where the specialists are available and where the vaning letters of the Master Plan can be adjusted to reality by them. The second substantial change of perspective water management planning is thus reached when the task is not the compilation of a National Water Management Master Plan but the framework of national water management has to be planned for a long period. Thus, instead of the compilation of a new Master Plan, continuous planning work based thereon has to be performed ensuring by the assessment of possibilities the steady efficiency of water management, the concrete designation of objectives and the relative priorites thereof. Long-term water management planning has changed thus from its former individual and later sectional planning form to the continuous planning method. This continuous form of planning is reasonable only if its uniformity and the efficiency of this uniform planning process can be attained in the same way as the small energy of a beam of rays can be multipled by concentrating it in laser. Naturally, long-term water management planning cannot assume in the national economy a role corresponding to its significance unless a suitable organization capable of preparing sound long- and mediumterm plans is available and the realization of these long-term plans by the ministries and other national authorities is promoted. Only those long-term plans can be considered successful which are well-founded and are prepared by circumspect considerations, drawing correct inferences. These plans can meet the demands of economic development, rising above the momentary interests and subjective restrictions. I hope that this already traditional conference will help all of us to make water management more purproseful and efficient, by forming the public opinion, by shaping healthy judgement and by disseminating the significance of perspective planning to the wide public. Surgery is not always the best therapy but undoubtedly it is the most spectacular and its performers are the most enviable. Therefore plans to help solving water problems of towns in an ad hoc way are not the most appropriate ones, but anyhow these are the most attractive for the public opinion. On a certain level of organization and production, however, it is better to design longterm water management gradually, according to development plans in order to eliminate sudden ad hoc measures. The most attractive phase of forestry is wood cutting but greater funds are still invested for the planting of trees and for raising them with care over long years. Often others will cut the wood than those planting the trees. The time has come to realize that water management requires even greater perspectives than forestry. It should be realized that water production or diversion are not the only and most important water management functions, but priority must be given to the correct assesment of water resources, to the determination of changes in time, to the prediction of water quality, to the elaboration of the measures necessary to improve and to maintain water quality, to the estimation of water needs and the methods of meeting these. All these activities can be performed efficiently by well organized long-term water management planning only. I believe that this warning is given in time to designers, constructors and authorities dealing with water problems, to observe in their activities the longterm water management plans even if these contain objectives or methods not readily conceivable to them. The greater the departure from the integral system of the perspective plans, the greater is the loss due to inefficiency and in view of the limited resources any waste thereof must be avoided.