Magyar külpolitika, 1930 (11. évfolyam, 1-7. szám)

1930 / 4. szám - Next War in 1937

CHIEF EDITORS GYULA DE PÉKÁR, BÁRON JOSEPH SZTERÉNYI PRINCIPAL CONTENTS Next War in 1937. By Dr. Tibor Eckhardt 21 How Hungary wasdoomed 23 Jubilee of Henry Kálmán 26 The Economic Position of Hungary .... 27 XNext War in 1937, By Dr. Tibor Eckhardt. The Naval Disarmament Conference, beid al the beginning of this year, was a turning-point in the history of our times. In London, as at one time in Algeciras, the issue was: Will Europo be able to smooth away the existing differences amicably, or will the rivalry in armaments, which must eventually lead to war, be resurned? It was again tbe colonies in the Mediterránéin littoral which made agreement impossible. Italy's standpoint — naval parity with Francé — means nothing less tlian a determination to acquire the French colonies. Differences of a similar nature lurked behind the world-war. Germany, over-populated and poor in raw materiális, wanted an „Absatzgebiet" — a depository for its surplus of men and inanufactured goods — and cheap raw materials; instead of which, at Versailles it had to part with all its colonies, even with valuable districts in the Mother country, and with a considerable percentage of its ore and coal supplies. Boot-shaped [taly, thai other European country struggling with over-population, foufíht on the winning side, and yet is compelled to send 2r>(),()<)() people yearly overseas. It has no coal, no petróleum, no wood, no minerals, and has nothing but industry to fali back on for the support of its population. For decades the emigrants to the United States were mainly Germans and Italians, but the immigration laws have closed thai safety-valve. The Italian boot pinches more and more. Strange to say, just this one victor got nőne of the Germán colonies; the peace treaties have only made the problems connected with the increase of population in Europe more difficult, without doing anything 1<> solve them. When, in spite of this situation, Mussolini advocates, instead of birth-control, a higher birthrate he has not the exhausted fields of Italy in his mind's eye, but conquering Román legions, taking possession anew of North Africa. This is the real signification of the London Naval Disarmament Conference. * The fertile North African colonies, indeed, prove too gréat a temptation for hungry, over-populated Italy. For decades back the population of Francé has been on the decrease, and most of the civilising work in these French colonies is being done by the sons of other nations. The European population of Tunis is mainly Italian, yet the sliortsighted French policy of assimilation deprives all children born there of their originál citizenship and forces them to enlist in the French Army. Italian sovereignty over the African colonies would help niatters. For Francé the colonies mean merely increased riches, greater prestige; but for Italy, if it wishes to avoid an explosion of tlie social eruptive forces they are a vitai question. In Mussolini, [taly has a lcader able to focus the longings and forces of the Italian people in his own personalitv; as it were, in a lens which scorches where its rays fali. A peaceable solution is rendered impossible by the democratic institutions of the Twentieth Century. Autocratic monarrhs were able to give away whole principalities as wedding gifts, but what parliamentary Government would be allowed to relinquish a rich colony nnless circumstances were compelling! So only one possibility remains: military preparations. But the milliards thus spent mean a beavy loss in interest, which every year of peace will increase. Only war can put an end to this almost intolerable competition, in which case the loser will have to refund the money sunk in barren invéstment; and, even if it means ruin, will have In pay compound interesl thereon. * Among the Powers dissatisfied with conditions, Italy plays the leading role to-day, but very shortly Germany will jóin in. She must do so because of compelling circumstances, irrespective of whether ,,Junkers" or „Marxists" are in power in Berlin.